3 ms·

Unfortunately, Silver seems to have taken the wrong lesson from his election-forecasting success.... What he seems to have concluded is that there are no expert

Unfortunately, Silver seems to have taken the wrong lesson from his election-forecasting success.... What he seems to have concluded is that there are no experts anywhere, that a smart data analyst can and should ignore all that. Doing your own analysis doesn't mean you believe there are no experts. It means you believe experts are sometimes wrong and there's value in doing original analysis from the source data. I love that about 538. Most news sources are writing based on the same small set of sources and quotes. Even if I don't agree with 538's analysis, it's useful to get the perspective of a critical outsider armed with data.

dragonwriter 13y ago
> Doing your own analysis doesn't mean you believe there are no experts. Krugman isn't criticizing Silver for doing his own analysis, he's criticizing the lack of judgement he displays is hiring Roger Pielke, Jr., -- who is neither a neutral data scientist nor a climatologist, but a political scientist who has long been selling a very specific position regarding climate change -- to do his analysis for him on the issue of climate change, and then publishing his report with the specific flaws that critics have identified in Pielke's piece, and suggesting that the process that allowed all that to happen was a result of Siver's disregard for expertise in the domain. Personally I think that Krugman is attacking Silver for the wrong reason -- I don't think that Silver's problem is a lack of respect of real expertise in any domain (and in his own work, while he was conducted his own analysis, he has also demonstrated respect for -- without unquestioning deference to -- domain experts), I think its more likely that if there is a problem its just a simple failure of judgement regarding someone else's abilities and interests.

3 ms·

Unfortunately, Silver seems to have taken the wrong lesson from his election-forecasting success.... What he seems to have concluded is that there are no expert

by thesausageking 13y ago

dragonwriter 13y ago
> Doing your own analysis doesn't mean you believe there are no experts. Krugman isn't criticizing Silver for doing his own analysis, he's criticizing the lack of judgement he displays is hiring Roger Pielke, Jr., -- who is neither a neutral data scientist nor a climatologist, but a political scientist who has long been selling a very specific position regarding climate change -- to do his analysis for him on the issue of climate change, and then publishing his report with the specific flaws that critics have identified in Pielke's piece, and suggesting that the process that allowed all that to happen was a result of Siver's disregard for expertise in the domain. Personally I think that Krugman is attacking Silver for the wrong reason -- I don't think that Silver's problem is a lack of respect of real expertise in any domain (and in his own work, while he was conducted his own analysis, he has also demonstrated respect for -- without unquestioning deference to -- domain experts), I think its more likely that if there is a problem its just a simple failure of judgement regarding someone else's abilities and interests.