3 ms·

Well, duh. At 63 games this has an expected value of $1e-10. https://www.google.com/search?q=1000000000%2F2%5E63 https://www.google.com/search?q=1000000000%2F2

• testacular 13y ago
  You naively assumes that every game is a 50/50 coin-toss, resulting in an estimate that's off by many orders of magnitude. A more realistic model would put the average edge around 58%, and the value of a single bracket at a much greater level: $0.000001.
• naftaliharris 13y ago
  That would be the case if each of the games were played between truly equal teams. In fact, many of the games are much easier to predict than 50/50 since one team is better than another. So the expected value is actually higher, (though presumably still quite small, of course!)
• asdfologist 13y ago
  No, that's only if you assume every game has the same odds as a coin flip, which is far from true.