3 ms·
this isnt the unwisdom of crowds, its the difficulty of noticing sampling bias
by the_cat_kittles 13y ago
this isnt the unwisdom of crowds, its the difficulty of noticing sampling bias
- gwern 13y agoCorrelations between participants (such as due to a systematic bias such as a selection bias) is one of the most common ways for 'wisdom of crowds' to fail. So I'm not sure what your point is.
- the_cat_kittles 13y agoMy point is this accidental selection bias doesn't depend on the crowd- you could just as easily make this mistake if you are 1 person in a room by yourself. Some examples of what I would call unwisdom of crowds might be the biasing feedback effect a prediction market's current price has on people's judgement, or how those with the most money (or the with the smallest marginal value of a dollar) exert a larger influence on a prediction market's predictions, if they are implemented that way.