2 ms·

Warren Buffett Keeps His Billion

• mightybyte 13y ago
  In the VERY FIRST game to finish, 11 seed Dayton upsets 6 seed Ohio State. Nate Silver had given Dayton a 25% chance of winning, so just about everyone who used his numbers as a guide is out now. Buffett's odds just got MUCH better.
  • turtle4 13y ago
    At least one of the 12 seeds wins almost every year. An 11 seed upsetting doesn't really impact the odds much. Not that anyone is going to win his money, but this one game doesn't change anything.
    • mightybyte 13y ago
      In absolute terms, you're right. But in relative terms this just eliminated the majority of brackets. And since Nate Silver's bracket is probably one of the more intelligently picked and widely disseminated out there, a huge number of the people who probably had better odds of winning just got knocked out. So in relative terms, it absolutely changed things.
  • maxerickson 13y ago
    In some numerical sense Buffett has better odds now. I think in a conversational sense, they didn't really change, just because the reasonable conversational description of the odds was ~0 to begin with.