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My understanding is that the military radar tracked the plane for hours after the transponder went off. This raises some important questions: 1. How did the mi

My understanding is that the military radar tracked the plane for hours after the transponder went off. This raises some important questions: 1. How did the military not know this plane disappeared from civilian tracking systems? 2. If they did know, why did they not scramble planes to check what's going on? 3. Why did they withhold for days the fact that the plane changed direction? The GP is right: some serious WTF going on in Malaysia.

mikeash 13y ago
Personally I think there's a decent possibility that whoever was manning the radars that night was in on it somehow. It's a crazy idea and it's not too likely, but no other possibility seems particularly likely either. It does neatly explain how the military "ignored" an unauthorized intrusion into their airspace as well as why they "didn't notice it" for some days afterwards. I'm not too serious about this, yet at the same time it seems like the least improbable idea.
Zancarius 13y ago
If it turned and were to follow established corridors, I can't imagine neighboring militaries would be particularly concerned. Even if they were paying attention to the transponders themselves, they might figure it was some sort of technical trouble--as long as the aircraft stays in the corridor, who cares? Some idiot flying along an established route without his transponder is a problem for ATC, not air defense, and that seems to be the best explanation for #1 and #3, probably even #2. Sure, Vietnam noticed and tried to inform Malaysia, but countries upstream from the route might not have cared (they probably wouldn't have seen it turn, either). But you're right, Malaysia hasn't done a stellar job organizing the search and recovery (understatement of the year aware goes to...). The real problem, though, is that no one has any idea what's going on. I admit. There's something fantastical to consider about a plane, under control of a rogue pilot (or pilots), clandestinely flying to a location for possible future use in an elaborate terror plot. The only caveat is that the logistics of such a thing would require so much preliminary planning in terms of fueling, storing/hiding the plane somewhere, or outright repainting it, that it very nearly requires the resources of a state actor or another determined (and secretive) foe. And who would be the target? The simplest solution, then, is to speculate that there was some sort of emergency on board, the pilots became confused (or incapacitated and the plane was operating on autopilot), and the aircraft is now at the bottom of the sea. Returning to the article: It's easy to blame countries near the Indian Ocean of being highly secretive about their capabilities. I'm sure they are, of course, (and certainly need to be) but there's something about the elaborate hijacking plot that seems amazingly complicated and difficult to pull off. Moreover, as time wears on, the probability of being discovered increases, and I'm sure other states (Israel) might be keeping an eye on potential suspects (Iran) for such activity anyway, simply out of paranoia. Further, how easy is it to disappear a plane and keep it hidden for weeks, months, or indefinitely? One instance [1] comes to mind, but with 239 people on board...? That's to say nothing about finding a runway large enough to land such a beast that is also not well monitored. I'll say this: It'd make great fiction, certainly, but I think the crux of the matter is something we don't do well as humans. We don't like to admit that we don't know the answer. And this could become the mystery of the century if it's never found. However, I'm inclined to believe it was an emergency of some sort (at least I hope). But, the only thing that doesn't mesh well with that theory is the engine monitoring data, but we might very well discover there was a valid reason for that (incapacitated pilots?). For the sake of the families, I hope something is discovered soon--if only for closure. I can't even begin to imagine the pain they're feeling not knowing what became of their loved ones. [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N844AA http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N844AA
- lake_rogue 13y ago
  The effects of hypoxia are profound on human performance -- it's not as simple as being unconscious and incapacitated, it can be irrational and incoherent. As an example, listen to the incoherency of this professional pilot suffering effects of hypoxia at 32,000 feet (flying a LearJet 25) -- he sounds falling over drunk, complaining about flight control problems, oblivious to the profound effects of hypoxia that he and his copilot are experiencing: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_IqWal_EmBg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_IqWal_EmBg Then listen to him after being coached to descend to 11,000 feet when everything really is "A-OK". He sounds like a completely different person at 4:10. The co-pilot who sounds young and spritely at 4:00 (who me? unconscious, nah, just a micro-nap) had this written about him: "the unconscious first officer's arm was moving violently and uncontrolled all the time kicking the controls and thus disengaging the autopilot"). [1] While I find all the wild speculation fascinating, sadly I believe the highest probability explanation is still a fire or depressurization, resulting in a pilot acting incoherently. Of course, all stones should still be turned over in the search, but there's been no evidence so far that changes the scenario above from being the highest probability in my assessment. [1] http://avherald.com/h?article=428a428b http://avherald.com/h?article=428a428b
  - Zancarius 13y ago
    Hypoxia is another consideration that's worth looking at and would certainly explain the wild altitude changes. It's a shame that it's not being explored as closely as some of the other theories. Particularly when you consider it was responsible (at least partially) for the downing of Helios flight 522 in 2005.

mikeash 13y ago

Personally I think there's a decent possibility that whoever was manning the radars that night was in on it somehow. It's a crazy idea and it's not too likely, but no other possibility seems particularly likely either. It does neatly explain how the military "ignored" an unauthorized intrusion into their airspace as well as why they "didn't notice it" for some days afterwards. I'm not too serious about this, yet at the same time it seems like the least improbable idea.

Zancarius 13y ago

If it turned and were to follow established corridors, I can't imagine neighboring militaries would be particularly concerned. Even if they were paying attention to the transponders themselves, they might figure it was some sort of technical trouble--as long as the aircraft stays in the corridor, who cares? Some idiot flying along an established route without his transponder is a problem for ATC, not air defense, and that seems to be the best explanation for #1 and #3, probably even #2. Sure, Vietnam noticed and tried to inform Malaysia, but countries upstream from the route might not have cared (they probably wouldn't have seen it turn, either). But you're right, Malaysia hasn't done a stellar job organizing the search and recovery (understatement of the year aware goes to...). The real problem, though, is that no one has any idea what's going on. I admit. There's something fantastical to consider about a plane, under control of a rogue pilot (or pilots), clandestinely flying to a location for possible future use in an elaborate terror plot. The only caveat is that the logistics of such a thing would require so much preliminary planning in terms of fueling, storing/hiding the plane somewhere, or outright repainting it, that it very nearly requires the resources of a state actor or another determined (and secretive) foe. And who would be the target? The simplest solution, then, is to speculate that there was some sort of emergency on board, the pilots became confused (or incapacitated and the plane was operating on autopilot), and the aircraft is now at the bottom of the sea. Returning to the article: It's easy to blame countries near the Indian Ocean of being highly secretive about their capabilities. I'm sure they are, of course, (and certainly need to be) but there's something about the elaborate hijacking plot that seems amazingly complicated and difficult to pull off. Moreover, as time wears on, the probability of being discovered increases, and I'm sure other states (Israel) might be keeping an eye on potential suspects (Iran) for such activity anyway, simply out of paranoia. Further, how easy is it to disappear a plane and keep it hidden for weeks, months, or indefinitely? One instance [1] comes to mind, but with 239 people on board...? That's to say nothing about finding a runway large enough to land such a beast that is also not well monitored. I'll say this: It'd make great fiction, certainly, but I think the crux of the matter is something we don't do well as humans. We don't like to admit that we don't know the answer. And this could become the mystery of the century if it's never found. However, I'm inclined to believe it was an emergency of some sort (at least I hope). But, the only thing that doesn't mesh well with that theory is the engine monitoring data, but we might very well discover there was a valid reason for that (incapacitated pilots?). For the sake of the families, I hope something is discovered soon--if only for closure. I can't even begin to imagine the pain they're feeling not knowing what became of their loved ones. [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N844AA http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N844AA

lake_rogue 13y ago
The effects of hypoxia are profound on human performance -- it's not as simple as being unconscious and incapacitated, it can be irrational and incoherent. As an example, listen to the incoherency of this professional pilot suffering effects of hypoxia at 32,000 feet (flying a LearJet 25) -- he sounds falling over drunk, complaining about flight control problems, oblivious to the profound effects of hypoxia that he and his copilot are experiencing: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_IqWal_EmBg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_IqWal_EmBg Then listen to him after being coached to descend to 11,000 feet when everything really is "A-OK". He sounds like a completely different person at 4:10. The co-pilot who sounds young and spritely at 4:00 (who me? unconscious, nah, just a micro-nap) had this written about him: "the unconscious first officer's arm was moving violently and uncontrolled all the time kicking the controls and thus disengaging the autopilot"). [1] While I find all the wild speculation fascinating, sadly I believe the highest probability explanation is still a fire or depressurization, resulting in a pilot acting incoherently. Of course, all stones should still be turned over in the search, but there's been no evidence so far that changes the scenario above from being the highest probability in my assessment. [1] http://avherald.com/h?article=428a428b http://avherald.com/h?article=428a428b
- Zancarius 13y ago
  Hypoxia is another consideration that's worth looking at and would certainly explain the wild altitude changes. It's a shame that it's not being explored as closely as some of the other theories. Particularly when you consider it was responsible (at least partially) for the downing of Helios flight 522 in 2005.