5 ms·

Maybe there's something lost in translation but I guess the story was leaked to journalists because the runways were specially designated i.e. bookmarked or set

Maybe there's something lost in translation but I guess the story was leaked to journalists because the runways were specially designated i.e. bookmarked or set-up for regular practice with waypoints similar to what investigators have found. I'm not a pilot, but I imagine if I were, I would want to try landing at airports I normally wouldn't. So in the simulator I would probably pick the world's toughest runways, the most scenic ones, runways on the other side of the world... The Malaysians are being criticized but I don't think many countries would do that much better given the task in hand. Sure, the public relations and messaging should be better, but I'm sure there's a lot of stuff going on that we don't know about.

mikeash 13y ago
I don't believe that idea that other countries wouldn't do better. They had the military radar data the night the plane went missing, indicating that the plane did not in fact crash near where the transponder shut down, but flew west for over an hour before disappearing off the radar in that direction. Despite having this information available, they either ignored it or didn't think to ask for it or something, and as a result they wasted massive amounts of time and effort (theirs and that of other countries) searching the wrong ocean. For a week. That military radar data is probably the most important information in the investigation that wasn't immediately known. Yet it didn't actually come to light until days later, and then when it did their immediate reaction was to deny that it was true! It took another couple of days before they finally settled down and admitted, yes, we tracked this plane flying completely out of the search area and far away from where we've been telling everyone it is. And we knew this for a couple of days, but we let everybody continue searching the wrong place anyway. In fact, we'll still let them keep searching for a couple more days before we refocus. There is some serious WTF going on. I hope there is some massive coverup or conspiracy going on, because they're verging on criminally incompetent otherwise.
- pge 13y ago
  To give them the benefit of the doubt, when a plane's transponder shuts down over the ocean and isnt heard from again, it's very easy to leap to the obvious conclusion that it went down and focus on marshaling recovery resources, rather than thinking through how to test extremely low probability hypotheses like "the pilot turned off the electronics and flew in a completely different direction."
  - gradstudent 13y ago
    My understanding is that the military radar tracked the plane for hours after the transponder went off. This raises some important questions: 1. How did the military not know this plane disappeared from civilian tracking systems? 2. If they did know, why did they not scramble planes to check what's going on? 3. Why did they withhold for days the fact that the plane changed direction? The GP is right: some serious WTF going on in Malaysia.
    - mikeash 13y ago
      Personally I think there's a decent possibility that whoever was manning the radars that night was in on it somehow. It's a crazy idea and it's not too likely, but no other possibility seems particularly likely either. It does neatly explain how the military "ignored" an unauthorized intrusion into their airspace as well as why they "didn't notice it" for some days afterwards. I'm not too serious about this, yet at the same time it seems like the least improbable idea.
    - Zancarius 13y ago
      If it turned and were to follow established corridors, I can't imagine neighboring militaries would be particularly concerned. Even if they were paying attention to the transponders themselves, they might figure it was some sort of technical trouble--as long as the aircraft stays in the corridor, who cares? Some idiot flying along an established route without his transponder is a problem for ATC, not air defense, and that seems to be the best explanation for #1 and #3, probably even #2. Sure, Vietnam noticed and tried to inform Malaysia, but countries upstream from the route might not have cared (they probably wouldn't have seen it turn, either). But you're right, Malaysia hasn't done a stellar job organizing the search and recovery (understatement of the year aware goes to...). The real problem, though, is that no one has any idea what's going on. I admit. There's something fantastical to consider about a plane, under control of a rogue pilot (or pilots), clandestinely flying to a location for possible future use in an elaborate terror plot. The only caveat is that the logistics of such a thing would require so much preliminary planning in terms of fueling, storing/hiding the plane somewhere, or outright repainting it, that it very nearly requires the resources of a state actor or another determined (and secretive) foe. And who would be the target? The simplest solution, then, is to speculate that there was some sort of emergency on board, the pilots became confused (or incapacitated and the plane was operating on autopilot), and the aircraft is now at the bottom of the sea. Returning to the article: It's easy to blame countries near the Indian Ocean of being highly secretive about their capabilities. I'm sure they are, of course, (and certainly need to be) but there's something about the elaborate hijacking plot that seems amazingly complicated and difficult to pull off. Moreover, as time wears on, the probability of being discovered increases, and I'm sure other states (Israel) might be keeping an eye on potential suspects (Iran) for such activity anyway, simply out of paranoia. Further, how easy is it to disappear a plane and keep it hidden for weeks, months, or indefinitely? One instance [1] comes to mind, but with 239 people on board...? That's to say nothing about finding a runway large enough to land such a beast that is also not well monitored. I'll say this: It'd make great fiction, certainly, but I think the crux of the matter is something we don't do well as humans. We don't like to admit that we don't know the answer. And this could become the mystery of the century if it's never found. However, I'm inclined to believe it was an emergency of some sort (at least I hope). But, the only thing that doesn't mesh well with that theory is the engine monitoring data, but we might very well discover there was a valid reason for that (incapacitated pilots?). For the sake of the families, I hope something is discovered soon--if only for closure. I can't even begin to imagine the pain they're feeling not knowing what became of their loved ones. [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N844AA http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N844AA
kjs3 13y ago
I would suggest you look at how an NTSB or EASA investigation is conducted and compare it to the pageant of incompetence displayed by everyone involved in the MH370 investigation and get back to us on that "couldn't do better" thought.

mikeash 13y ago

I don't believe that idea that other countries wouldn't do better. They had the military radar data the night the plane went missing, indicating that the plane did not in fact crash near where the transponder shut down, but flew west for over an hour before disappearing off the radar in that direction. Despite having this information available, they either ignored it or didn't think to ask for it or something, and as a result they wasted massive amounts of time and effort (theirs and that of other countries) searching the wrong ocean. For a week. That military radar data is probably the most important information in the investigation that wasn't immediately known. Yet it didn't actually come to light until days later, and then when it did their immediate reaction was to deny that it was true! It took another couple of days before they finally settled down and admitted, yes, we tracked this plane flying completely out of the search area and far away from where we've been telling everyone it is. And we knew this for a couple of days, but we let everybody continue searching the wrong place anyway. In fact, we'll still let them keep searching for a couple more days before we refocus. There is some serious WTF going on. I hope there is some massive coverup or conspiracy going on, because they're verging on criminally incompetent otherwise.

pge 13y ago
To give them the benefit of the doubt, when a plane's transponder shuts down over the ocean and isnt heard from again, it's very easy to leap to the obvious conclusion that it went down and focus on marshaling recovery resources, rather than thinking through how to test extremely low probability hypotheses like "the pilot turned off the electronics and flew in a completely different direction."
- gradstudent 13y ago
  My understanding is that the military radar tracked the plane for hours after the transponder went off. This raises some important questions: 1. How did the military not know this plane disappeared from civilian tracking systems? 2. If they did know, why did they not scramble planes to check what's going on? 3. Why did they withhold for days the fact that the plane changed direction? The GP is right: some serious WTF going on in Malaysia.
  - mikeash 13y ago
    Personally I think there's a decent possibility that whoever was manning the radars that night was in on it somehow. It's a crazy idea and it's not too likely, but no other possibility seems particularly likely either. It does neatly explain how the military "ignored" an unauthorized intrusion into their airspace as well as why they "didn't notice it" for some days afterwards. I'm not too serious about this, yet at the same time it seems like the least improbable idea.
  - Zancarius 13y ago
    If it turned and were to follow established corridors, I can't imagine neighboring militaries would be particularly concerned. Even if they were paying attention to the transponders themselves, they might figure it was some sort of technical trouble--as long as the aircraft stays in the corridor, who cares? Some idiot flying along an established route without his transponder is a problem for ATC, not air defense, and that seems to be the best explanation for #1 and #3, probably even #2. Sure, Vietnam noticed and tried to inform Malaysia, but countries upstream from the route might not have cared (they probably wouldn't have seen it turn, either). But you're right, Malaysia hasn't done a stellar job organizing the search and recovery (understatement of the year aware goes to...). The real problem, though, is that no one has any idea what's going on. I admit. There's something fantastical to consider about a plane, under control of a rogue pilot (or pilots), clandestinely flying to a location for possible future use in an elaborate terror plot. The only caveat is that the logistics of such a thing would require so much preliminary planning in terms of fueling, storing/hiding the plane somewhere, or outright repainting it, that it very nearly requires the resources of a state actor or another determined (and secretive) foe. And who would be the target? The simplest solution, then, is to speculate that there was some sort of emergency on board, the pilots became confused (or incapacitated and the plane was operating on autopilot), and the aircraft is now at the bottom of the sea. Returning to the article: It's easy to blame countries near the Indian Ocean of being highly secretive about their capabilities. I'm sure they are, of course, (and certainly need to be) but there's something about the elaborate hijacking plot that seems amazingly complicated and difficult to pull off. Moreover, as time wears on, the probability of being discovered increases, and I'm sure other states (Israel) might be keeping an eye on potential suspects (Iran) for such activity anyway, simply out of paranoia. Further, how easy is it to disappear a plane and keep it hidden for weeks, months, or indefinitely? One instance [1] comes to mind, but with 239 people on board...? That's to say nothing about finding a runway large enough to land such a beast that is also not well monitored. I'll say this: It'd make great fiction, certainly, but I think the crux of the matter is something we don't do well as humans. We don't like to admit that we don't know the answer. And this could become the mystery of the century if it's never found. However, I'm inclined to believe it was an emergency of some sort (at least I hope). But, the only thing that doesn't mesh well with that theory is the engine monitoring data, but we might very well discover there was a valid reason for that (incapacitated pilots?). For the sake of the families, I hope something is discovered soon--if only for closure. I can't even begin to imagine the pain they're feeling not knowing what became of their loved ones. [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N844AA http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N844AA

kjs3 13y ago

I would suggest you look at how an NTSB or EASA investigation is conducted and compare it to the pageant of incompetence displayed by everyone involved in the MH370 investigation and get back to us on that "couldn't do better" thought.