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As a general principle I will agree with probability statement, however I would like to note that given the evidence we have it might be smaller than one in eig
by TrainedMonkey 13y ago
As a general principle I will agree with probability statement, however I would like to note that given the evidence we have it might be smaller than one in eight billion. That is, provided satoshi is not dead, randomly chosen living human would have a higher chance of being satoshi.
- jgalt212 13y agoSo you don't think the circumstantial evidence presented (both by Newsweek and Dorian's interesting reaction to the article) make it's greater than 1 in 8B that Dorian is Satoshi? That's not a terribly tenable position.
- TrainedMonkey 13y agoThis is more or less simple Bayesian logic. There is an explanation of every claim Newsweek made (explaining away). At the same time we have a lot more evidence of Dorian not being Satoshi. I just think that probability we would have observed all that evidence and Dorian being Satoshi is exceptionally small.