8 ms·

Albeit a great app, this method is less reliable than having proper birth control at hand. I see mentions of "But it's 1.8% failure rate!" - thing about Cumula

Albeit a great app, this method is less reliable than having proper birth control at hand. I see mentions of "But it's 1.8% failure rate!" - thing about Cumulative Probability is, that is a pretty high number of failure after about 10 years. After 10 years you have a Cumulative Probability: P(X = 1) of about 15% of getting pregnant. If you don't want to be a dad/mom - use a condom. Or go double dutch.

ntaso 13y ago
Your argument lacks on two levels: 1. The same logic must be applied to condoms. They have a failure rate of 0.6 - 12% per year, depending on the study. 2. You mix perfect-use with imperfect-use. Even sterilization doesn't have a 0% failure rate, because sometimes things don't work out properly. The perfect-use index of sterilization should be 100% safety, but in reality, it's 99.9% I think.
burgeralarm 13y ago
Fortunately, probabilities for birth control methods aren't presented in this way. Generally, when an organization like Planned Parenthood says that the symptothermal method is 99.6% effective, what they really mean is: "Of 100 couples who use the symptothermal method correctly for one year, 0.4 (fewer than one) will have a pregnancy." (Source: http://www.plannedparenthood.org/health-topics/birth-control/fertility-awareness-4217.htm http://www.plannedparenthood.org/health-topics/birth-control...) So after about 100 years of using this method, you've got a .4% chance of becoming pregnant. Seems like decent odds to me.
- IanCal 13y ago
  > So after about 100 years of using this method, you've got a .4% chance of becoming pregnant. Seems like decent odds to me. No, after one year you've got a 0.4% chance of being pregnant. Assuming this stays steady over 100 years, you'd have a 33% chance of being pregnant (1 - (0.996 ^ 100)) Their maths for a 1.8% failure rate over 10 years is right, it's about 15%.
akayp015 13y ago
Definitely use both. I feel like this app is supposed to replace the pill rather than all methods of birth control. Which I am completely behind since I would forget to take the pill every other day. Which is why I'm now pregnant. Not to mention the crazy hormones, weight gain, and general misery the pill brought on. Yeah, I'll be switching to this.
- servowire 13y ago
  Congrats, I guess? :) Or the NuvaRing. Low hormone, can't forget it. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NuvaRing http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NuvaRing
  - akayp015 13y ago
    Haha, thank you! Yeah, surprise babies are (eventually) the most wonderful surprises. The only reason I never got a NuvaRing is because I wasn't comfortable with something being implanted in my body. It just didn't feel right. Granted birth control is just as unnatural, but it's slightly easier on the conscience to take a pill a doctor prescribes you than insert a plastic ring that releases hormones into your vagina.
  - ntaso 13y ago
    The pill is exactly the same. "Lower hormones" is just marketing fluff. All hormonal birth control methods work with more or less the same principle (suppress ovulation, make cervical mucus less fluid and thus reduce survivability and movability of sperm). That means that if you have problems with one pill, you're very likely to have problems with other pills/hormonal methods as well.

ntaso 13y ago

Your argument lacks on two levels: 1. The same logic must be applied to condoms. They have a failure rate of 0.6 - 12% per year, depending on the study. 2. You mix perfect-use with imperfect-use. Even sterilization doesn't have a 0% failure rate, because sometimes things don't work out properly. The perfect-use index of sterilization should be 100% safety, but in reality, it's 99.9% I think.

burgeralarm 13y ago

Fortunately, probabilities for birth control methods aren't presented in this way. Generally, when an organization like Planned Parenthood says that the symptothermal method is 99.6% effective, what they really mean is: "Of 100 couples who use the symptothermal method correctly for one year, 0.4 (fewer than one) will have a pregnancy." (Source: http://www.plannedparenthood.org/health-topics/birth-control/fertility-awareness-4217.htm http://www.plannedparenthood.org/health-topics/birth-control...) So after about 100 years of using this method, you've got a .4% chance of becoming pregnant. Seems like decent odds to me.

IanCal 13y ago
> So after about 100 years of using this method, you've got a .4% chance of becoming pregnant. Seems like decent odds to me. No, after one year you've got a 0.4% chance of being pregnant. Assuming this stays steady over 100 years, you'd have a 33% chance of being pregnant (1 - (0.996 ^ 100)) Their maths for a 1.8% failure rate over 10 years is right, it's about 15%.

akayp015 13y ago

Definitely use both. I feel like this app is supposed to replace the pill rather than all methods of birth control. Which I am completely behind since I would forget to take the pill every other day. Which is why I'm now pregnant. Not to mention the crazy hormones, weight gain, and general misery the pill brought on. Yeah, I'll be switching to this.

servowire 13y ago
Congrats, I guess? :) Or the NuvaRing. Low hormone, can't forget it. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NuvaRing http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NuvaRing
- akayp015 13y ago
  Haha, thank you! Yeah, surprise babies are (eventually) the most wonderful surprises. The only reason I never got a NuvaRing is because I wasn't comfortable with something being implanted in my body. It just didn't feel right. Granted birth control is just as unnatural, but it's slightly easier on the conscience to take a pill a doctor prescribes you than insert a plastic ring that releases hormones into your vagina.
- ntaso 13y ago
  The pill is exactly the same. "Lower hormones" is just marketing fluff. All hormonal birth control methods work with more or less the same principle (suppress ovulation, make cervical mucus less fluid and thus reduce survivability and movability of sperm). That means that if you have problems with one pill, you're very likely to have problems with other pills/hormonal methods as well.