Consider an ideal black spherical 777, hilarity ensues... But seriously, the strength of Bayes is in coping with an initially craptastic prior by updating prob

Consider an ideal black spherical 777, hilarity ensues... But seriously, the strength of Bayes is in coping with an initially craptastic prior by updating probabilities (the posteriors) as (potentially noisy) evidence comes in. Now based on that data as it arrives, build an evolving model for the location with confidence intervals and probabilities. Now refine your search to emphasize locations with both emerging high probability and high variance and hope the noise in the data isn't so pathological as to make the process worthless. It's worth a shot.