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Autopilot: pilots leave controls to deal with fire. Transponders: disabled to deal with fire or as a result. Closest possible airport: the one the plane turne

by Steko 13y ago

Autopilot: pilots leave controls to deal with fire. Transponders: disabled to deal with fire or as a result. Closest possible airport: the one the plane turned towards was arguably the best one to go for. Radio silence: disabled by fire.

sliverstorm 13y ago
But that's not nearly as exciting as a terrorist plot. /s
CamperBob2 13y ago
Trouble is, there are multiple separate radios they could use, both HF and VHF. A fire that takes out the transponder and all of the radios and still leaves the aircraft capable of flying for hours seems pretty unlikely. Fr. Occam is pacing back and forth and stroking his beard on this one, that's for sure.
- kreeben 13y ago
  It seems to me the most plausible explanation at this point is a hostage situation, not a mechanical failure. Where is the debris? And it can't be a heist to steal a plane. Oh, it's gonna be easy, we just need to kill 250 people, no big deal. There must be easier ways to get hold of a plane. It seems media has ruled this out on the basis "there have been no ransom demand". But there will be. I'd say within a week. Occam?
  - CamperBob2 13y ago
    No reason to think we'd be privy to a ransom demand, for that matter. The appearance of bumbling incompetence on the Malaysians' part may just be a facade.
  - evan_ 13y ago
    Why would they wait two weeks? That's a long time to wrangle 250 people. I would expect the ransom demand while the plane is still in the air, if only to contain everyone.
- leoc 13y ago
  > Trouble is, there are multiple separate radios they could use, both HF and VHF. Or they could apparently have taken a second to activate the 777's Emergency Locator Transponder, powered by its own battery and with its own hardwired, non-computerised switch circuit to the cockpit. You could imagine the aircraft accidentally flying (and transmitting over SATCOM) for hours with no other communications if there was some kind of crisis that completely cut off the pilots' (and passengers') ability to use the flight controls for the whole time (quite possibly by killing them) without damaging plane's systems much overall. Hypoxia or smoke inhalation seem plausible. Some kind of fire that completely destroyed the instrument panel without spreading too much further sounds vaguely possible. (IIRC at least one of the pilots had a habit of smoking while flying.) Surely both pilots couldn't somehow have locked themselves out of the cockpit behind the security door? The problem is that such a scenario is hard to square with a flight path that apparently included multiple changes of course and altitude long after any initial cockpit emergency https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7420894 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7420894 .
spikels 13y ago
Flew for 7 more hours changing direction & elevation repeatedly: fire reprogrammed flight computer.
- leoc 13y ago
  To paraphrase Steven Hawking's publishers, every turn made by flight 370, later than say 5-10 minutes after the transponders went off, cuts the plausibility of accident theories roughly in half. That does raise the question of how many turns there really were, though. Earlier reports based on radar suggest that the plane made several course changes as it flew in a zig-zag around the Malacca Strait and Andaman Sea west of Malaysia. If enough of those apparent sightings can be knocked down then an accident becomes more likely. Though even one change of direction onto one of the final SATCOM arcs, apparently without any effort to communicate at the same time, is a real head-scratcher if you assume no foul play at any stage.

by Steko 13y ago

sliverstorm 13y ago

But that's not nearly as exciting as a terrorist plot. /s

CamperBob2 13y ago

Trouble is, there are multiple separate radios they could use, both HF and VHF. A fire that takes out the transponder and all of the radios and still leaves the aircraft capable of flying for hours seems pretty unlikely. Fr. Occam is pacing back and forth and stroking his beard on this one, that's for sure.

kreeben 13y ago
It seems to me the most plausible explanation at this point is a hostage situation, not a mechanical failure. Where is the debris? And it can't be a heist to steal a plane. Oh, it's gonna be easy, we just need to kill 250 people, no big deal. There must be easier ways to get hold of a plane. It seems media has ruled this out on the basis "there have been no ransom demand". But there will be. I'd say within a week. Occam?
- CamperBob2 13y ago
  No reason to think we'd be privy to a ransom demand, for that matter. The appearance of bumbling incompetence on the Malaysians' part may just be a facade.
- evan_ 13y ago
  Why would they wait two weeks? That's a long time to wrangle 250 people. I would expect the ransom demand while the plane is still in the air, if only to contain everyone.
leoc 13y ago
> Trouble is, there are multiple separate radios they could use, both HF and VHF. Or they could apparently have taken a second to activate the 777's Emergency Locator Transponder, powered by its own battery and with its own hardwired, non-computerised switch circuit to the cockpit. You could imagine the aircraft accidentally flying (and transmitting over SATCOM) for hours with no other communications if there was some kind of crisis that completely cut off the pilots' (and passengers') ability to use the flight controls for the whole time (quite possibly by killing them) without damaging plane's systems much overall. Hypoxia or smoke inhalation seem plausible. Some kind of fire that completely destroyed the instrument panel without spreading too much further sounds vaguely possible. (IIRC at least one of the pilots had a habit of smoking while flying.) Surely both pilots couldn't somehow have locked themselves out of the cockpit behind the security door? The problem is that such a scenario is hard to square with a flight path that apparently included multiple changes of course and altitude long after any initial cockpit emergency https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7420894 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7420894 .

spikels 13y ago

Flew for 7 more hours changing direction & elevation repeatedly: fire reprogrammed flight computer.

leoc 13y ago
To paraphrase Steven Hawking's publishers, every turn made by flight 370, later than say 5-10 minutes after the transponders went off, cuts the plausibility of accident theories roughly in half. That does raise the question of how many turns there really were, though. Earlier reports based on radar suggest that the plane made several course changes as it flew in a zig-zag around the Malacca Strait and Andaman Sea west of Malaysia. If enough of those apparent sightings can be knocked down then an accident becomes more likely. Though even one change of direction onto one of the final SATCOM arcs, apparently without any effort to communicate at the same time, is a real head-scratcher if you assume no foul play at any stage.