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The best quote in the article: "The iPhone will not substantially alter the fundamental structure and challenges of the mobile industry," Charles Golvin, an an

The best quote in the article: "The iPhone will not substantially alter the fundamental structure and challenges of the mobile industry," Charles Golvin, an analyst at Forrester Research Inc., said in a report this month. There are three reasons that Apple is unlikely to make much of an impact on this market -- and why it is too early to start dumping your Nokia shares. This is comedy gold, but is also a good reality check about the mainstream news we read today. Not all predictions made by supposed experts will be accurate.

morcheeba 13y ago
This was one of the easiest things they could have gotten right. A phone you buy from the manufacturer instead of the carrier? That was revolutionary ... Verizon sold gimped versions of the RAZR and then charged you a monthly fee to ungimp them!
- tricolon 13y ago
  That wasn't the only factor; all my Nokia phones I purchased from Nokia directly.
  - runn1ng 13y ago
    This. In Europe, carrier and manufacturer were decoupled for some time before iPhone, so it was not revolutionary in that regard.
    - crwll 13y ago
      Were they actually generally ever coupled in Europe in the first place? In Finland they weren't.
burritofanatic 13y ago
And I bet Charles Golvin now has an iPhone, probably two of them.
- spikels 13y ago
  For a mere $199 you can get his thoughts on the latest iPhone models. http://www.forrester.com/Apple+Doubles+Down+On+Its+Premium+Brand+With+The+iPhone+5s+And+5c/fulltext/-/E-RES104121 http://www.forrester.com/Apple+Doubles+Down+On+Its+Premium+B...
kenrikm 13y ago
I love this one http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eywi0h_Y5_U http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eywi0h_Y5_U - Balmer, I miss you.. there will never be someone so clueless as you.
- blub 13y ago
  Ballmer and others were not wrong to laugh about the iPhone because it was just a bad smartphone compared to what was available at that time for someone that wanted to do more than browse the web. Until iOS 5 and 4S one would be making significant sacrifices when choosing an iPhone. Thanks to playing their cards right and arrogance and stupidity on part of Nokia they won, but it wasn't always clear it would be like that.
  - fredsted 13y ago
    Tell me, which sacrifices did I have to make with iOS 4 and my old iPhone 4? Because I remember jailbreaking, installing SSH servers, custom apps, and stuff like that. It was the most full-featured phone at the time.
  - Nikker 13y ago
    I got on board with the 3GS and IOS 3.0. I can't say that your complaints are justified. The web experience was pretty good because you would 'zoom' in on the part of the page you were reading. It had enough memory to run 1 app at a time but each app worked smoothly. I also jail broke mine and was using ssh to login to my home PC while on the bus to work and it was pretty epic at the time. No other phone could do that kind of thing and now I guess the rest is history.
    - MichaelGG 13y ago
      There was no SSH client for Windows Mobile? Or the Nokia N? Or go back even further to the Danger Sidekick? Not saying the iPhone wasn't a smoother experience but other phones could do "that kind of thing".
    - icebraining 13y ago
Frqy3 13y ago
And not all purported experts are even experts (no surprises here, I'm sure). I don't know anything about the analyst referenced in the article, but there are two factors contributing to these types of prediction errors. 1. Most analysts don't have prior industry experience in their field before becoming an analyst. Although they (usually) pick up enough as they go along to understand the terms and major issues, they have little depth and are unable to reason from first principles. I work for one of these large analyst firms and my estimate is that less than 10% of our analysts have relevant industry experience. We are not unexeptional in this. 2. Vendors invest heavily in analyst relations. While this helps to better inform the analysts, it also pushes the vendor's world view. Invites to conferences and events, access to senior execs, early access to information, etc. also help reinforce the bond between the vendor and the analyst. So, not only are analysts biased towards that which they know best, it is also harder to write something negative about a company/product where you personally know the people involved.
- vbs_redlof 13y ago
  From what I understand, it doesn't matter so much if an analyst's forecasts are wrong, so long as they keep their bank's high-touch clients in the loop with vendors (trade commissions). Clients value this kind 'soft' information more than they would over some dodgy EPS figure.
Aloha 13y ago
""The iPhone will not substantially alter the fundamental structure and challenges of the mobile industry," Charles Golvin, an analyst at Forrester Research Inc., said in a report this month." I'd actually argue that the quote above is substantively correct (in the US). 2006: Phones are sold largely on contract, by various retailers, including the manufacturer; churn is driven largely on pricing, network performance, and network-effect factors. 2014: Phones are sold largely on contract, by various retailers, including the manufacturer; churn is driven largely on pricing, network performance, and network-effect factors. The iPhone changed the experience of using the mobile phone, and what we did on our mobile phones - not how we buy them, nor did the change the base reason people switch carriers - not in the long game anyhow, people still switch because of dissatisfaction with their existing provider, or that the grass appears greener on the other side.
- hayksaakian 13y ago
  Data became significantly more important. We went from being nickel and dimed on minutes and SMS with unlimited data to being nickel and dimed on data with unlimited minutes and SMS.
  - josephlord 13y ago
    And before the iPhone data charges where horrific, £/$/€'s per MB (not GB). If you were only nickel and dimed you were doing well. To get the initial exclusive iPhone contracts the telcos had to offer unlimited data which made a smartphone useful in a way that the earlier models weren't. That is how the iPhone changed the market for the better at least in the UK and even if you don't have one. Competitive pressure may have caused it to happen eventually but we can all thank Steve Jobs for speeding up that important change.
- Gustomaximus 13y ago
  It has significantly increased the challenges for telco's in they are increasingly a dumb pipe (e.g iMessenger) and limiting their ability to value add or profit take. And for manufactures it opened the way for software to overtake hardware as defining feature of a phone, a massive structural shift in the industry IMO.
egeozcan 13y ago
It reminds me of stuff like these: > Crytek jumps on Steam Machine hype train, announces Linux support[1] [1]: http://arstechnica.com/gaming/2014/03/crytek-jumps-on-steam-machine-hype-train-announces-linux-support/ http://arstechnica.com/gaming/2014/03/crytek-jumps-on-steam-...
scotthtaylor 13y ago
Scary thing is, he is now Principal Analyst at Forrester Research. "Lead analyst covering all aspects of consumer mobility and the digital home. Responsible for a continuous stream of research and strategic advice to leaders at Fortune 1000 companies."
- deleted 13y ago
  [deleted]
zimpenfish 13y ago
If I've learnt nothing else over the last 25 years, I've at least learnt that 99.99% of analysts couldn't find their arse if you not only gave them a map but stapled the map to their hands, their hands to their arse, and pointed at it shouting "IT'S THERE! THERE! THERE!" I wish I could get paid to spout nonsense all day long with no repercussions on the accuracy.

morcheeba 13y ago

This was one of the easiest things they could have gotten right. A phone you buy from the manufacturer instead of the carrier? That was revolutionary ... Verizon sold gimped versions of the RAZR and then charged you a monthly fee to ungimp them!

tricolon 13y ago
That wasn't the only factor; all my Nokia phones I purchased from Nokia directly.
- runn1ng 13y ago
  This. In Europe, carrier and manufacturer were decoupled for some time before iPhone, so it was not revolutionary in that regard.
  - crwll 13y ago
    Were they actually generally ever coupled in Europe in the first place? In Finland they weren't.

burritofanatic 13y ago

And I bet Charles Golvin now has an iPhone, probably two of them.

spikels 13y ago
For a mere $199 you can get his thoughts on the latest iPhone models. http://www.forrester.com/Apple+Doubles+Down+On+Its+Premium+Brand+With+The+iPhone+5s+And+5c/fulltext/-/E-RES104121 http://www.forrester.com/Apple+Doubles+Down+On+Its+Premium+B...

kenrikm 13y ago

I love this one http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eywi0h_Y5_U http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eywi0h_Y5_U - Balmer, I miss you.. there will never be someone so clueless as you.

blub 13y ago
Ballmer and others were not wrong to laugh about the iPhone because it was just a bad smartphone compared to what was available at that time for someone that wanted to do more than browse the web. Until iOS 5 and 4S one would be making significant sacrifices when choosing an iPhone. Thanks to playing their cards right and arrogance and stupidity on part of Nokia they won, but it wasn't always clear it would be like that.
- fredsted 13y ago
  Tell me, which sacrifices did I have to make with iOS 4 and my old iPhone 4? Because I remember jailbreaking, installing SSH servers, custom apps, and stuff like that. It was the most full-featured phone at the time.
- Nikker 13y ago
  I got on board with the 3GS and IOS 3.0. I can't say that your complaints are justified. The web experience was pretty good because you would 'zoom' in on the part of the page you were reading. It had enough memory to run 1 app at a time but each app worked smoothly. I also jail broke mine and was using ssh to login to my home PC while on the bus to work and it was pretty epic at the time. No other phone could do that kind of thing and now I guess the rest is history.
  - MichaelGG 13y ago
    There was no SSH client for Windows Mobile? Or the Nokia N? Or go back even further to the Danger Sidekick? Not saying the iPhone wasn't a smoother experience but other phones could do "that kind of thing".
  - icebraining 13y ago

Frqy3 13y ago

And not all purported experts are even experts (no surprises here, I'm sure). I don't know anything about the analyst referenced in the article, but there are two factors contributing to these types of prediction errors. 1. Most analysts don't have prior industry experience in their field before becoming an analyst. Although they (usually) pick up enough as they go along to understand the terms and major issues, they have little depth and are unable to reason from first principles. I work for one of these large analyst firms and my estimate is that less than 10% of our analysts have relevant industry experience. We are not unexeptional in this. 2. Vendors invest heavily in analyst relations. While this helps to better inform the analysts, it also pushes the vendor's world view. Invites to conferences and events, access to senior execs, early access to information, etc. also help reinforce the bond between the vendor and the analyst. So, not only are analysts biased towards that which they know best, it is also harder to write something negative about a company/product where you personally know the people involved.

vbs_redlof 13y ago
From what I understand, it doesn't matter so much if an analyst's forecasts are wrong, so long as they keep their bank's high-touch clients in the loop with vendors (trade commissions). Clients value this kind 'soft' information more than they would over some dodgy EPS figure.

Aloha 13y ago

""The iPhone will not substantially alter the fundamental structure and challenges of the mobile industry," Charles Golvin, an analyst at Forrester Research Inc., said in a report this month." I'd actually argue that the quote above is substantively correct (in the US). 2006: Phones are sold largely on contract, by various retailers, including the manufacturer; churn is driven largely on pricing, network performance, and network-effect factors. 2014: Phones are sold largely on contract, by various retailers, including the manufacturer; churn is driven largely on pricing, network performance, and network-effect factors. The iPhone changed the experience of using the mobile phone, and what we did on our mobile phones - not how we buy them, nor did the change the base reason people switch carriers - not in the long game anyhow, people still switch because of dissatisfaction with their existing provider, or that the grass appears greener on the other side.

hayksaakian 13y ago
Data became significantly more important. We went from being nickel and dimed on minutes and SMS with unlimited data to being nickel and dimed on data with unlimited minutes and SMS.
- josephlord 13y ago
  And before the iPhone data charges where horrific, £/$/€'s per MB (not GB). If you were only nickel and dimed you were doing well. To get the initial exclusive iPhone contracts the telcos had to offer unlimited data which made a smartphone useful in a way that the earlier models weren't. That is how the iPhone changed the market for the better at least in the UK and even if you don't have one. Competitive pressure may have caused it to happen eventually but we can all thank Steve Jobs for speeding up that important change.
Gustomaximus 13y ago
It has significantly increased the challenges for telco's in they are increasingly a dumb pipe (e.g iMessenger) and limiting their ability to value add or profit take. And for manufactures it opened the way for software to overtake hardware as defining feature of a phone, a massive structural shift in the industry IMO.

egeozcan 13y ago

It reminds me of stuff like these: > Crytek jumps on Steam Machine hype train, announces Linux support[1] [1]: http://arstechnica.com/gaming/2014/03/crytek-jumps-on-steam-machine-hype-train-announces-linux-support/ http://arstechnica.com/gaming/2014/03/crytek-jumps-on-steam-...

scotthtaylor 13y ago

Scary thing is, he is now Principal Analyst at Forrester Research. "Lead analyst covering all aspects of consumer mobility and the digital home. Responsible for a continuous stream of research and strategic advice to leaders at Fortune 1000 companies."

deleted 13y ago
[deleted]

zimpenfish 13y ago

If I've learnt nothing else over the last 25 years, I've at least learnt that 99.99% of analysts couldn't find their arse if you not only gave them a map but stapled the map to their hands, their hands to their arse, and pointed at it shouting "IT'S THERE! THERE! THERE!" I wish I could get paid to spout nonsense all day long with no repercussions on the accuracy.