3 ms·

Assuming each outcome is equally likely, which it isn't.

• Bahamut 13y ago
  Of course, but if you read what the site is doing, it is treating it as if it is in randomly picking a unique bracket.
  • rscott 13y ago
    It's not random. It's using a model to create what it believes the most likely bracket outcomes are. Those unique brackets are then distributed, obviously in order of most likely to least likely.
  • gph 13y ago
    No, I think it clearly states a smart statistical analysis will be used when generating brackets. Even references some Duke professor. I don't know what statistical method they plan on using, but Nate Silver/FiveThirtyEight already put out percentages for the whole bracket based on statistics/matchups[1]. It wouldn't be too hard to hand out brackets generated using the highest percentage brackets from something like that. I still don't think it will work. Even if a million people took part it would still be like a 1:1000 shot at best. And assuming they did distribute it evenly (don't think this is really possible given taxes and everything) at a million people that's only $1000 per person. [1]http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/march-madness-predictions/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/march-madness-predic...
    • thrush 13y ago
      I'm not typically a gambling man, but 1:1000 for $1000 is pretty good odds if you ask me, particularly considering there is no buy in (I think).
      • gph 13y ago
        Well you're giving your details to Quicken Loans and presumably yahoo. That includes name, address, DOB. While those details don't have a monetary value to you, they certainly have value to the companies you're giving them to.