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The idea is nice, but the statistical odds are against you. Say you have a 50% chance of picking it right each time. With the play in games, you have a 1 in 4
by Bahamut 13y ago
The idea is nice, but the statistical odds are against you. Say you have a 50% chance of picking it right each time. With the play in games, you have a 1 in 4 chance of getting those right. With the regular 32 games, you would need to get all of them right, or 1 in 2^32. With the next 16 games, you would need to get 2^16 correct. Then 2^8, 2^4, 2^2, and then 2^1.
Multiply them all together, you get 1 / (2^2 * 2^32 * 2^16 * 2^8 * 2^4 * 2^2 * 2^1) = 1 / (2^65)...crazy small odds.
- alwaysdoit 13y agoAssuming each outcome is equally likely, which it isn't.
- Bahamut 13y agoOf course, but if you read what the site is doing, it is treating it as if it is in randomly picking a unique bracket.
- rscott 13y agoIt's not random. It's using a model to create what it believes the most likely bracket outcomes are. Those unique brackets are then distributed, obviously in order of most likely to least likely.
- gph 13y agoNo, I think it clearly states a smart statistical analysis will be used when generating brackets. Even references some Duke professor. I don't know what statistical method they plan on using, but Nate Silver/FiveThirtyEight already put out percentages for the whole bracket based on statistics/matchups[1]. It wouldn't be too hard to hand out brackets generated using the highest percentage brackets from something like that. I still don't think it will work. Even if a million people took part it would still be like a 1:1000 shot at best. And assuming they did distribute it evenly (don't think this is really possible given taxes and everything) at a million people that's only $1000 per person. [1]http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/march-madness-predictions/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/march-madness-predic...
- thrush 13y agoI'm not typically a gambling man, but 1:1000 for $1000 is pretty good odds if you ask me, particularly considering there is no buy in (I think).
- gph 13y agoWell you're giving your details to Quicken Loans and presumably yahoo. That includes name, address, DOB. While those details don't have a monetary value to you, they certainly have value to the companies you're giving them to.