3 ms·
For anybody else in this field, I would caution you against accepting this knowledge as canon: > And news accounts routinely estimate the number of attendees a
by bmelton 13y ago
For anybody else in this field, I would caution you against accepting this knowledge as canon:
> And news accounts routinely estimate the number of attendees at political rallies.
In my experience, news organizations routinely over-estimate the attendance of events to which the reporter sympathizes, and dramatically under-estimates the attendance of events to which the reporter does not.
As someone who attends a lot of rallies encompassing both 'left' and 'right'-leaning movements, I can say that I've witnessed this first hand. I attended an event in Annapolis to oppose some gun control measures last October. The attendance, by my count, was nearly 4,000. I can prove by the testimonial registry that we had over 1400 people not only in attendance, but that provided testimony before the legislature. At the same event, those in favor of the rally were protesting as well. They had, by my count, a few dozen supporters in attendance. Their testimonial registry was exactly 22.
The Baltimore Sun and Washington Times reported attendance for both camps at 'about equal', which a 'few hundred in attendance for either side'.
When protesting in support of the fourth amendment, or in support of free speech rights for the media, those numbers were conversely inflated.
- lotsofmangos 13y agoIn my experience, news organizations routinely over-estimate the attendance of events to which the reporter sympathizes, and dramatically under-estimates the attendance of events to which the reporter does not. Hence why you use Bayesian analysis in the first place.
- Steko 13y agoThese claims don't pass a 3 min google test. Baltimore Sun: The governor's testimony before the Senate Judicial Proceedings Committee came after at least 1,500 gun-rights advocates rallied outside the State House in opposition to the legislation... Meanwhile, advocates on either side of the issue packed the hearing room and an overflow room downstairs. Hundreds more stood in a line that extended down a stairway to the floor below. Legislative aides said they had never seen such an outpouring of people seeking to testify on a bill. By an overwhelming number, they were signing up in opposition to the governor's proposal. http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2013-02-06/news/bs-md-omalley-guns-20130204_1_assault-weapons-gun-control-gun-buyers http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2013-02-06/news/bs-md-omall...
- bmelton 13y agoThere was more than one report on the matter, though I'm having a hard time finding the claims I initially complained about. I'll try to revisit this after my dentist appointment with some evidence, or a retraction.
- bmelton 13y agoThis[1] was the most egregious article I can find with my own 3 minutes of Googling, though I admit that it can be read in a way that presents the information without bias, though I think some of the ambiguity is intended to mislead. "Hundreds testify for, against proposals on assault weapons, licensing" is a sort of true statement, except that exactly 22 is not hundreds. I remember more biased reports from the time, but I can't find them now. So while there's some validity to your point, I've seen it happen enough to say confidently that those estimates are best-guess estimates, and those estimates are subject to bias. [1] http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/feb/6/gun-rights-advocates-swarm-annapolis-fight-omalley/?page=all http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/feb/6/gun-rights-ad...