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There was a big variance in the regular season performances of the #1 seeds this year, which is what the computers are picking up on. If anything, I think human

There was a big variance in the regular season performances of the #1 seeds this year, which is what the computers are picking up on. If anything, I think humans have the opposite effect of what you suspect, as they do things like overrating Wichita St for emotional reasons (undefeated record) while the most famous computer ranking http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaab/sagarin/ http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaab/sagarin/ puts Wichita St as only the 13th best team. Also, historically #1 seeds were stronger than they are now because top players didn't go to the NBA so quickly.

Touche 13y ago
> Also, historically #1 seeds were stronger than they are now because top players didn't go to the NBA so quickly. Would love to see some data on that. My perception that it's been the same since the early 2000s.
- streptomycin 13y ago
  I'd like to see data too, but I don't have it :) My perception agrees with yours, I was thinking of the 80s and 90s when it wasn't uncommon to see superstars hone their skills for 4 years in college.
selectodude 13y ago
I would say the exact opposite, really. Players can't jump straight from high school anymore. So you have a larger base of extremely talented freshmen. Also, I would consider the Pomeroy rankings to be better (many more variables, Sagarin uses point differentials which are silly).
- streptomycin 13y ago
  There were only like 5-6 seasons when it was popular to go straight to the NBA from high school. In the last millennium, it was very uncommon. Instead, it was typical for top players to stay for 3-4 years. Now, they usually stay for just 1. Compare: Mostly freshman/sophomores: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_NBA_Draft#Draft_selections http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_NBA_Draft#Draft_selections Nearly all juiniors/seniors: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_NBA_Draft#Draft http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_NBA_Draft#Draft (EDIT: Christ, look at UNLV in that '91 draft. Seniors from that team were picked #1, #9, #12, #29. That's completely unfathomable today.)
  - deleted 13y ago
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  - moonka 13y ago
    Along the lines of UNLV, check out the 2005 draft with UNC. #2, #5, #13, & #14. I think that's the most lottery picks from one school in a year, and three were in the same class (#2 was a freshman)!

Touche 13y ago

> Also, historically #1 seeds were stronger than they are now because top players didn't go to the NBA so quickly. Would love to see some data on that. My perception that it's been the same since the early 2000s.

streptomycin 13y ago
I'd like to see data too, but I don't have it :) My perception agrees with yours, I was thinking of the 80s and 90s when it wasn't uncommon to see superstars hone their skills for 4 years in college.

selectodude 13y ago

I would say the exact opposite, really. Players can't jump straight from high school anymore. So you have a larger base of extremely talented freshmen. Also, I would consider the Pomeroy rankings to be better (many more variables, Sagarin uses point differentials which are silly).

streptomycin 13y ago
There were only like 5-6 seasons when it was popular to go straight to the NBA from high school. In the last millennium, it was very uncommon. Instead, it was typical for top players to stay for 3-4 years. Now, they usually stay for just 1. Compare: Mostly freshman/sophomores: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_NBA_Draft#Draft_selections http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_NBA_Draft#Draft_selections Nearly all juiniors/seniors: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_NBA_Draft#Draft http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_NBA_Draft#Draft (EDIT: Christ, look at UNLV in that '91 draft. Seniors from that team were picked #1, #9, #12, #29. That's completely unfathomable today.)
- deleted 13y ago
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- moonka 13y ago
  Along the lines of UNLV, check out the 2005 draft with UNC. #2, #5, #13, & #14. I think that's the most lottery picks from one school in a year, and three were in the same class (#2 was a freshman)!