What's often quoted in Warren Buffet's Billion dollar NCAA contest are the odds of randomly picking the perfect bracket of teams, but I have to think that Buffe

What's often quoted in Warren Buffet's Billion dollar NCAA contest are the odds of randomly picking the perfect bracket of teams, but I have to think that Buffet's insurance actuaries actually calculated the odds of randomly selecting the right bracket with a millions of random guesses around a locus of likely guesses informed by analysis like the posted page (and from other stats analysis professionals.. vegas oddsmakers for example...). Otherwise the risk of taking that bet is actually much higher than a fully random pick, yes? Edit: As it turns out, Warren Buffet, as usual, seems to have done his homework and even adds the interesting angle of "buying out" a possible winner partway through the contest: http://www.slate.com/articles/sports/sports_nut/2014/03/billion_dollar_bracket_challenge_why_it_s_a_bad_idea_to_enter_warren_buffett.2.html http://www.slate.com/articles/sports/sports_nut/2014/03/bill...