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I think this is a lousy defense of Bitcoin. I cringe whenever I read "oh it's new technology of course people will be scared!" or worse yet, "you must be jealou
by hft_throwaway 13y ago
I think this is a lousy defense of Bitcoin. I cringe whenever I read "oh it's new technology of course people will be scared!" or worse yet, "you must be jealous because you didn't get in on the ground floor." I think it's a really cool technology but the economics don't make a lot of sense. There are a few major issues I see:
-What problem does it solve? Many claim that it's a more efficient way to transfer money, but after paying high spreads & fees on illiquid exchanges or a place like coinbase, it doesn't look so good. International wires are expensive but paying 30 bps each way in exchange fees plus enormous spread concessions to trade even relatively small amounts like $1mm USD are much more expensive.
-What backs it other than speculation? Scarcity itself does not imply value. I don't see a significant "bitcoin economy" out there. Yes, you can buy things with them, but most of these things are priced in dollars. Sellers are accepting bitcoins only because they can sell them for USD, EUR, etc. to speculators. They have no particular attachment to bitcoins themselves and could just as easily accept another crypto currency provided speculators were active enough in the market. How many people are paid a salary or renting an apartment for a fixed amount of BTC per month?
-Many bad actors in the market with little regulation. There have been numerous scams and untrustworthy exchanges out there. It's like taking a trip back to the depression-era bucket shops.
-Consumer unfriendly: the average "man on the street" can't secure his wallet file and even many technically sharp people have been ripped off. Non-reversible transactions aren't a positive for most users and requiring traders to use an escrow service further increases costs. Network can't handle high transaction volumes and sellers need to wait for confirmations or risk fraud, so the use case of everyone buying their morning coffee with bitcoin seems shaky.
-Extreme volatility and lack of liquidity make it a poor store of value or unit of record, two things that are extremely important in a currency. Yes most government issued currencies experience inflation, but I can keep my paycheck in the bank for months or years without its value changing wildly, and I know what a loaf of bread costs in USD within a tight range.
Some of these are fixable and I see some growth potential in micropayments or as a money transfer mechanism for people who don't have access to traditional financial institutions, but what is the general purpose use case? What can I do with bitcoin that I can't with paypal or even a bank account (many let you instantly transfer money these days for no/low fees to pay friends, landlords, etc.)?
- ewoodrich 13y agoI've thought that Bitcoin (or more likely, a future crypto currency) might be better served as a transaction backbone for payment processors, banks, and the like. It could still be used for transactions between two individuals, but the bulk of transactions would be for routine inter-bank processing. This would have an effect of stabilizing the exchange rate, and could replace Fedwire/ACH for a large portion of transactions. However, I'm not convinced the current mining structure is optimal, and would certainly not be suitable for this usage. I'm sure many Bitcoin advocates would disagree with me, but I believe that there should be some mechanism a la the federal reserve to stabilize the market and allow for reasonable inflation. I have no idea how this would be implemented from a technical standpoint, but I believe with some refinements, cryptocurrencies can serve a place in the economy, but I do not see them replacing the "fiat" by any means.
- Retric 13y agoThe USD is already a digital currency. The Fed keeps a ledger of how much USD every bank has and transactions between banks, which enables banks to go back and forth between hard cash and digital currency. Note the Fed does not know how much each account has but that's the banks job. From a banks perspective there is no reason to change things. They can trust checks from random people as long as the Fed clears the transaction between them and Bank X at the end of the day there in the clear.
- dllthomas 13y agoIt's partly digitized. There's still quite a bit of shipping dollars around.
- Retric 13y agoThere are also physical Bitcoin's: https://www.casascius.com/ https://www.casascius.com/ You could argue that the physical bitcoins simply represent digital ones but the same can be said for USD as they are numbered. Coins are not currently numbered but represent a small fraction of the overall money supply. http://www.wheresgeorge.com/wild.php http://www.wheresgeorge.com/wild.php