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Sequence of events this implies when coupled with other information: 1. Electrical fire starts, takes out ADS-B transponder, pilots unaware and continue the fl
by PaulRobinson 13y ago
Sequence of events this implies when coupled with other information:
1. Electrical fire starts, takes out ADS-B transponder, pilots unaware and continue the flight as normal
2. They radio a goodbye as they leave ATC, still unaware of anything which means that a fire has taken out a transponder and they are unaware of that fact
3. The fire is discovered. The crew put on full-face oxygen masks and the pilot makes for that airport either by dialling in a bearing into the autopilot or disengaging it and flying for it.
4. They attempt communication but fail because the systems are out due to the fire
At that point, we then have a lot of things to consider: was it pilot input or autopilot that took them to FL450? When did the pilots lose the ability to land, either because of control surface damage or because they were incapacitated? In the event of being alive but unable to fly the aircraft because control surfaces were no longer responsive to cockpit or autopilot input, is there anything else they could/would do other than do some maths and work out when the inevitable crash was coming? If they could control some surfaces but not others would they use that to buy themselves more time, e.g. climbing to ceiling (FL450), or would they get low quick?
This theory raises quite a few questions then, but it's a perfectly valid hypothesis: the issue for me around it is understanding why the pilots didn't go on to make the landing suggesting loss of control or their own lives by that point. The only way we'll get to understand that is by finding the black box which of course would explain the whole thing anyway.
This theory also suggests a likely ditching or crash into the water, and if that were the case then I would expect sonar operators over a large part of the region to hear the black box locator, pretty much as they did with the Air France crash.
- confluence 13y agoIt's a pretty massive area and the boxes might be trashed.
- JelteF 13y agoThose boxes are built to be untrashable.
- confluence 13y agoThey certainly are. Doesn't mean they can't be trashed. They have been before.
- XorNot 13y agoI doubt a fire and an impact on to water would do it though.
- confluence 13y agoI did say might be. Rescue ops have to be within 15 miles for detection and the overflight area is absolutely massive given the very approx location data provided by the SATCOMM pings.
- coherentpony 13y agoAnd the Titanic was built to be unsinkable.
- andyjohnson0 13y agoOT, but thats pretty much a myth: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legends_and_myths_regarding_RMS_Titanic#Unsinkable http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legends_and_myths_regarding_RMS...
- coherentpony 13y agoOh cool! I didn't know that. Off topic, but I learned something. Thanks.
- javindo 13y agoAs were the boxes on 9/11, but those were allegedly destroyed in the fire.
- JelteF 13y ago
- jrs235 13y agoWhile I'm not sold on the cabin fire theory, could flying to FL450 have been an attempt to snuff the fire out?
- davepage 13y agoNo, previous experience with fires has taught the best policy is to land as quickly as possible. Standard procedure would be to put out all available drag and descend for the nearest aerodrome with all possible haste. Ditching is preferable to cruise in the case of a serious fire. The turning maneuvers west of the peninsula are not consistent with a rational fire response by the crew.
- synthos 13y agoThe article talks about the turning moves being a rational choice to go to the Langkawi runway
- knowaveragejoe 13y agoThose turning moves were east of the peninsula.
- synthos 13y agoThat's an interesting hypothesis, one I have not heard discussed yet.
- Zancarius 13y agoI would speculate that in the case of a fire, the subsequent change in altitude was probably more likely the result of loss of control, or the autopilot was still connected and became confused by the avionics/instrumentation sending it bad/invalid data. The latter part seems fairly unlikely, but I have no idea what a fire would do if it took out or disrupted the instrumentation, flight computers, etc..
- graeham 13y agoThis requires the pilots to discover the fire at the exact time when switching from Malaysian Air Traffic Control to Vietnamese Air Traffic Control. The fire then incapacitates the radio or the pilots before they have a chance to call in the incident. Seems overly coincidental to me.
- Arjuna 13y ago"The only way we'll get to understand that is by finding the black box which of course would explain the whole thing anyway." I appreciate that there are technical challenges and costs associated with the following idea, but it would be quite an interesting project to create a system that would transmit Flight Data Recorder (FDR) information to a ground location. Off the top of my head, it would need to be flexible, perhaps recording more detailed telemetry in cases where cellular networks were available, to being able to provide critical, but perhaps less-detailed telemetry, in cases where only satellite communications were available. In addition, data monitoring systems could be programmed with the intelligence to transmit more detailed telemetry in the event of an anomaly (e.g., the "left turn" with regard to MH370). This would be an attempt to find the right balance of data fidelity, with regard to available transmission capabilities and associated costs. Sadly, as it is now, we are left with relying on essentially locating the proverbial "needle in a haystack" with regard to locating the FDR. Another example is the case with AF447 [1]. Although the FDR was recovered, it was not until nearly 2 years after the incident. My heart goes out to those that lost loved ones. Not having closure is an extremely painful and difficult process to endure. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_France_Flight_447 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_France_Flight_447
- goatforce5 13y agoWhy Do Airlines Keep ‘Black Box’ Flight Data Trapped on Planes? "In an airplane tragedy, however, the information stored in the so-called black box inevitably ends up inside a wreck. This seems like a terrible place to keep the clue you need to find most." http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-03-10/malaysia-air-crash-why-do-airlines-keep-black-box-flight-data-trapped-on-planes http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-03-10/malaysia-air...
- tlrobinson 13y agoAlternatively, why don't planes have floating EPIRBs (http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Distress_radiobeacon http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Distress_radiobeacon) or even floating black boxes? They could be attached to one or more points on the plane where they're likely to be released if wreckage sinks.
- Zancarius 13y ago> and if that were the case then I would expect sonar operators over a large part of the region to hear the black box locator Apparently the pingers are only audible for 2-3 km [1]. [1] http://www.hydro-international.com/issues/articles/id1098-Air_France_Flight_AF.html http://www.hydro-international.com/issues/articles/id1098-Ai...