My initial reaction was also "you've priced your risk at less than 1 in a trillion", but then I realized this is risk per movie pirated not per person. I still

My initial reaction was also "you've priced your risk at less than 1 in a trillion", but then I realized this is risk per movie pirated not per person. I still think it is way too low an estimate, but it might be closer if we assume that people who pirate movies tend to do so with thousands of movies. But yeah, your chance of "getting caught" is way way higher than the number implied here.