Sorry .. that was just a random thought in my brain .. heres the reasoning in reverse .. assuming the company is worth $50m after an year with a probability of

Sorry .. that was just a random thought in my brain .. heres the reasoning in reverse .. assuming the company is worth $50m after an year with a probability of 33% and worth zilch with probability of 67%, and assuming that u have a 2% stake .. expected payout = 0.33 x 50 x 0.02 = 330k. the estimate was optimistic in my opinion. so i wud say a 2% stake is not worth it. its probably better to spend 1 year building ur own company i.e. one in which u have a significantly higher share. but of course it still doesnt answer the question i guess