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The problem with studies about the future is that they tend to too easily reconfirm the ideological beliefs of the writers. For example, the Romans didn't coll
by narrator 13y ago
The problem with studies about the future is that they tend to too easily reconfirm the ideological beliefs of the writers. For example, the Romans didn't collapse because of environmental reasons. This makes them a tough jigsaw piece to squeeze into a deep environmentalist collapse puzzle. This is probably why Jared Diamond ignores them and instead focuses on small tribes in the arctic and easter island.
The only collapse theorist that I know of who's developed a collapse theory that avoids ideology is Joseph Taintor. Probably because he is not an economist but a professor of archeology.
- kordless 13y agoYeah, those mathematicians have crazy ideas.
- graeme 13y agoThe Roman's did exhaust their environment though. Soil depleted, habours silted up, and forests disappeared. In North Africa this led to desertification that persists today. Tainter specifically mentions Roman soil depletion in his book. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deforestation_during_the_Roman_period#Consequences_of_deforestation http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deforestation_during_the_Roman_...
- narrator 13y agoTainter's explanation for their collapse was the diminishing marginal utility of the "conquer and collect tribute" mechanism that had served them so well in previous centuries. I'm not saying that they did not deforest the land or change the environment but that's like saying the cause of the decline of the new world civilizations in the 15th century was because of their expansive agricultural modifications of the land in the preceding centuries. Maintaining territory and tribute generated negative marginal returns after a while. It was only the eastern roman empire's deconstruction of their military institutions into the theme based system[1] of distributed farmer's security collectives that let the Eastern Roman Empire (A.K.A Byzantium) last another 1000 years after the western roman empire had collapsed. 1. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theme_(Byzantine_district) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theme_(Byzantine_district)
- _of 13y agoWhat are the ideological beliefs of Nasa's Goddard Space Flight Center?
- spikels 13y agoI'm pretty sure that the article is incorrect and NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center has very little or nothing to do with this study. The apparent paper[1] describes the funding as: "This work was partially funded through NASA/GSFC grant NNX12AD03A, known as "Collaborative Earth System Science Research Between NASA/GSFC and UMCP"" I believe the Guardian writer is simply using NASA and Goddard as an appeal to authority to increase the credibility of a highly speculative study written by grad students. That said I hope you can see that ideology is an important driver of both the reporting and the study. [1] http://www.atmos.umd.edu/~ekalnay/pubs/handy-paper-for-submission-2.pdf http://www.atmos.umd.edu/~ekalnay/pubs/handy-paper-for-submi...
- blaze33 13y agoJared Diamond explicitly said that environmental issues aren't always a defining factor in the collapse of human societies. What kind of ideological beliefs are you talking about ?
- danbruc 13y agoGrab this PDF [1] scroll to the end and look at the charts comparing three different scenarios simulated in 1972 with the actual development over 30 years. When you look at them keep in mind that »Standard Run« and »Comprehensive Technology« lead to a collapse, only »Stabilized World« keeps humans happy. So there is definitely something quantifiable to it independent of any ideology. [1] http://www.csiro.au/~/media/CSIROau/Divisions/CSIRO%20Sustainable%20Ecosystems/SEEDPaper19_CSE_publication%20Standard.pdf http://www.csiro.au/~/media/CSIROau/Divisions/CSIRO%20Sustai...