6 ms·

Malaysia Officials, Saying Missing Jet Was Diverted, Open Criminal Inquiry

41 points by wozniacki 13y ago

spicywith 13y ago
It seems to me unbelievable, that in an age in which the governments of many countries can figure out the exact location of a single individual in order to assassinate them with a drone, we've somehow lost track of something the size of a jet liner, crossing over international borders. I guess we'll know if a nuclear missile is headed out way because the issuing country will give us a warning call? Why is it so hard to pinpoint the exact location of this plane?
confluence 13y ago
Probably headed back to the coast after experiencing difficulties then something incapacitated the crew, until they ran out of fuel over the Indian ocean. > An Asia-based pilot of a Boeing 777-200, who asked not to be identified because he was not authorized to speak to reporters, said an ascent above the plane’s service limit of 43,100 feet, along with a depressurized cabin, could have rendered the passengers and crew unconscious, and could be a deliberate maneuver by a pilot or a hijacker. > Other experts said that altitude changes would be expected if the pilots became disabled after the plane’s autopilot was disengaged. Changes in the weight distribution on the plane as fuel burned off would make the plane descend and climb repeatedly, though changes in course would be harder to explain. ... > The data, the official said, “leads them to believe that it either ran out of fuel or crashed right before it ran out of fuel.” > It would take a long runway to land a plane of that size, the official said. Although the radius that the plane could have flown extends into South Asia, the official added, “the idea it could cross into Indian airspace and not get picked up made no sense.”
- ronnier 13y ago
  I have no idea how one would come to your conclusion when there's evidence otherwise, that this was a deliberate action: the climbs, disabling of more than one communication system at different times, course changes, no calls back.
tomelders 13y ago
My crank theory is that the plane has been stolen and they've somehow swapped their identity with another plane.
- frik 13y ago
  Some countries under embargo have aging aircrafts, a functional one or spare parts... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Embargo#List_of_countries_under_embargo http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Embargo#List_of_countries_under...
- whatgoodisaroad 13y ago
  As long as we're airing crank theories, mine is that this is orchestrated by the Kremlin to take focus off of the Crimea.
  - tomelders 13y ago
    The Russians must be gutted they went to all that effort and the world is still pissed about the "Ukranian Problem"
  - deleted 13y ago
    [deleted]
mattquiros 13y ago
Weren't relatives able to ring the phones of the victims just a few days ago, but well after 8:11 a.m. ("toward the very end of the plane’s fuel")?
- Steko 13y ago
  No, the ring is done by the system while it tries to connect with the target phone. If any cell phone on that plane passed in range of any cell phone tower they would have been able to pinpoint the plane's location fairly quickly.
  - nextweek2 13y ago
    This is an interesting user interface problem. Connecting to a mobile or IP phone can take seconds. As the network operators or phone in question you need to provide feedback that the call is in progress but not ringing at the other end. Unfortunately there isn't a universal sound for that so you either get silence or a fake ringing. Silence makes people think its broken, whereas ringing gives false hope...
itry 13y ago
What would be the theory of least effort? By that I mean least people involved, least criminal energy, least planning. Could a pilot do this completely on his own? Turn off the communication system, fly 4 hours into a different direction and then nosedive into the ocean?
- confluence 13y ago
  Slow burn fire randomly taking out communications systems and electronics undetected over a long period of time. Pilots freak out and head West for the coast, program way points on autopilot. Fire then cracks the hull, leading to a slow depressurization, incapacitating crew. Plane heads into the Indian ocean with all onboard unconscious or dead, until it runs out of fuel.
  - TheAnimus 13y ago
    this fire just happened to cut out all four radio circuits, both transponders (physically separate systems) before he could squark about it, or contact anyone on the radio? I really doubt that. If I thought that was possible, I wouldn't fly the little sheds I do for fun.
  - hga 13y ago
    The thing that bothers me is that the transponder(s) were turned off/failed right at the boundary between Malaysian and Vietnamese air traffic control. Could be a coincidence, but it's also a good location for those of bad intent.
- jfoster 13y ago
  One difficulty in creation of theories about what may have happened to this flight is that it depends what evidence the theory needs to fit, and there is still quite a lot of confusion about what evidence is factual and what evidence has been reported in the media but then denied by authorities. What exactly is known for certain?
- Steko 13y ago
  Major mechanical event involving electrical fire and possible incapacitation of flight crew. Whoever's flying the plane attempts to turn back, correct again after an hour to try and follow where they think the peninsula is, crashes into middle of ocean after running out of fuel.
shimon_e 13y ago
The cargo list for this flight has still not been released. The max amount of passengers allowed to board this flight was 50 less than the number of available seats. Suggesting the flight was carrying heavy cargo.
- tobehonest 13y ago
  Gold?
  - mjklin 13y ago
    Ark of the Covenant?
  - Tuna-Fish 13y ago
    Gold is likely. It is very highly valued in China, as people feel they need to save for retirement, inflation is high, and a lot of the population distrusts available investment opportunities. The Chinese imported nearly 2000 tons of gold last year.
- confluence 13y ago
  No. Flights are often under booked. The mean load factor in the US is ~80%. The worst thing about conspiracy theorists is that they have no idea what they're talking about. Leave the real conspiracy thinking to the guys who actually know their stuff.
  - danso 13y ago
    Sometimes I don't know what's worse: conspiracy theorists, or people who matter of factly assume there are "guys who actually know their stuff" AND, if they do exist, are the ones who are actually tasked with meaningful action
    - devnonymous 13y ago
      Unless you share exactly my specific level of paranoia you are either buying into what ^they^ want you to believe or are a nut case tin-foil hatter ! :-)
ccarpenterg 13y ago
The New York Times, quoting American officials and others familiar with the investigation, said radar signals recorded by the Malaysian military appear to show the airliner climbing to 45,000 feet (about 13,700 meters), higher than a Boeing 777’s approved limit, soon after it disappeared from civilian radar, and making a sharp turn to the west.[1] If the MH370 suddenly climbed to 45,000 feet that would indicate that either (1) there was a mechanical failure so the pilots had to struggle to take the control again or (2) there was a fight in the cockpit that resulted on the abrupt climb. [1] http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/15/mh370-search-for-missing-malaysia-airlines-plane-extended-to-southern-indian-ocean http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/15/mh370-search-fo...
- jusben1369 13y ago
  My understanding so that the height reached is one of the much more speculative pieces. It's based off the plane pinging a satellite and could easily be off several thousand feet. (Read that earlier)
  - carlosdp 13y ago
    No I think the height was from the radar, the part you are talking about is the ping reported a drop of 40,000ft in the span of a minute, which didn't make any sense.
    - Steko 13y ago
      The height of 45K is estimated with fairly large error bands. That aircraft couldn't get to 45K with the cargo and fuel it had at the time of the report.
lesterbuck 13y ago
An earlier NYT diagram showed the plane crossing into Thai airspace. Where are the Thai military radar data?

41 points by wozniacki 13y ago

It seems to me unbelievable, that in an age in which the governments of many countries can figure out the exact location of a single individual in order to assassinate them with a drone, we've somehow lost track of something the size of a jet liner, crossing over international borders. I guess we'll know if a nuclear missile is headed out way because the issuing country will give us a warning call? Why is it so hard to pinpoint the exact location of this plane?

confluence 13y ago

Probably headed back to the coast after experiencing difficulties then something incapacitated the crew, until they ran out of fuel over the Indian ocean. > An Asia-based pilot of a Boeing 777-200, who asked not to be identified because he was not authorized to speak to reporters, said an ascent above the plane’s service limit of 43,100 feet, along with a depressurized cabin, could have rendered the passengers and crew unconscious, and could be a deliberate maneuver by a pilot or a hijacker. > Other experts said that altitude changes would be expected if the pilots became disabled after the plane’s autopilot was disengaged. Changes in the weight distribution on the plane as fuel burned off would make the plane descend and climb repeatedly, though changes in course would be harder to explain. ... > The data, the official said, “leads them to believe that it either ran out of fuel or crashed right before it ran out of fuel.” > It would take a long runway to land a plane of that size, the official said. Although the radius that the plane could have flown extends into South Asia, the official added, “the idea it could cross into Indian airspace and not get picked up made no sense.”

ronnier 13y ago
I have no idea how one would come to your conclusion when there's evidence otherwise, that this was a deliberate action: the climbs, disabling of more than one communication system at different times, course changes, no calls back.

tomelders 13y ago

My crank theory is that the plane has been stolen and they've somehow swapped their identity with another plane.

frik 13y ago
Some countries under embargo have aging aircrafts, a functional one or spare parts... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Embargo#List_of_countries_under_embargo http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Embargo#List_of_countries_under...
whatgoodisaroad 13y ago
As long as we're airing crank theories, mine is that this is orchestrated by the Kremlin to take focus off of the Crimea.
- tomelders 13y ago
  The Russians must be gutted they went to all that effort and the world is still pissed about the "Ukranian Problem"
- deleted 13y ago
  [deleted]

mattquiros 13y ago

Weren't relatives able to ring the phones of the victims just a few days ago, but well after 8:11 a.m. ("toward the very end of the plane’s fuel")?

Steko 13y ago
No, the ring is done by the system while it tries to connect with the target phone. If any cell phone on that plane passed in range of any cell phone tower they would have been able to pinpoint the plane's location fairly quickly.
- nextweek2 13y ago
  This is an interesting user interface problem. Connecting to a mobile or IP phone can take seconds. As the network operators or phone in question you need to provide feedback that the call is in progress but not ringing at the other end. Unfortunately there isn't a universal sound for that so you either get silence or a fake ringing. Silence makes people think its broken, whereas ringing gives false hope...

itry 13y ago

What would be the theory of least effort? By that I mean least people involved, least criminal energy, least planning. Could a pilot do this completely on his own? Turn off the communication system, fly 4 hours into a different direction and then nosedive into the ocean?

confluence 13y ago
Slow burn fire randomly taking out communications systems and electronics undetected over a long period of time. Pilots freak out and head West for the coast, program way points on autopilot. Fire then cracks the hull, leading to a slow depressurization, incapacitating crew. Plane heads into the Indian ocean with all onboard unconscious or dead, until it runs out of fuel.
- TheAnimus 13y ago
  this fire just happened to cut out all four radio circuits, both transponders (physically separate systems) before he could squark about it, or contact anyone on the radio? I really doubt that. If I thought that was possible, I wouldn't fly the little sheds I do for fun.
- hga 13y ago
  The thing that bothers me is that the transponder(s) were turned off/failed right at the boundary between Malaysian and Vietnamese air traffic control. Could be a coincidence, but it's also a good location for those of bad intent.
jfoster 13y ago
One difficulty in creation of theories about what may have happened to this flight is that it depends what evidence the theory needs to fit, and there is still quite a lot of confusion about what evidence is factual and what evidence has been reported in the media but then denied by authorities. What exactly is known for certain?
Steko 13y ago
Major mechanical event involving electrical fire and possible incapacitation of flight crew. Whoever's flying the plane attempts to turn back, correct again after an hour to try and follow where they think the peninsula is, crashes into middle of ocean after running out of fuel.

shimon_e 13y ago

The cargo list for this flight has still not been released. The max amount of passengers allowed to board this flight was 50 less than the number of available seats. Suggesting the flight was carrying heavy cargo.

tobehonest 13y ago
Gold?
- mjklin 13y ago
  Ark of the Covenant?
- Tuna-Fish 13y ago
  Gold is likely. It is very highly valued in China, as people feel they need to save for retirement, inflation is high, and a lot of the population distrusts available investment opportunities. The Chinese imported nearly 2000 tons of gold last year.
confluence 13y ago
No. Flights are often under booked. The mean load factor in the US is ~80%. The worst thing about conspiracy theorists is that they have no idea what they're talking about. Leave the real conspiracy thinking to the guys who actually know their stuff.
- danso 13y ago
  Sometimes I don't know what's worse: conspiracy theorists, or people who matter of factly assume there are "guys who actually know their stuff" AND, if they do exist, are the ones who are actually tasked with meaningful action
  - devnonymous 13y ago
    Unless you share exactly my specific level of paranoia you are either buying into what ^they^ want you to believe or are a nut case tin-foil hatter ! :-)

ccarpenterg 13y ago

The New York Times, quoting American officials and others familiar with the investigation, said radar signals recorded by the Malaysian military appear to show the airliner climbing to 45,000 feet (about 13,700 meters), higher than a Boeing 777’s approved limit, soon after it disappeared from civilian radar, and making a sharp turn to the west.[1] If the MH370 suddenly climbed to 45,000 feet that would indicate that either (1) there was a mechanical failure so the pilots had to struggle to take the control again or (2) there was a fight in the cockpit that resulted on the abrupt climb. [1] http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/15/mh370-search-for-missing-malaysia-airlines-plane-extended-to-southern-indian-ocean http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/15/mh370-search-fo...

jusben1369 13y ago
My understanding so that the height reached is one of the much more speculative pieces. It's based off the plane pinging a satellite and could easily be off several thousand feet. (Read that earlier)
- carlosdp 13y ago
  No I think the height was from the radar, the part you are talking about is the ping reported a drop of 40,000ft in the span of a minute, which didn't make any sense.
  - Steko 13y ago
    The height of 45K is estimated with fairly large error bands. That aircraft couldn't get to 45K with the cargo and fuel it had at the time of the report.

lesterbuck 13y ago

An earlier NYT diagram showed the plane crossing into Thai airspace. Where are the Thai military radar data?