Based on everything we've learned recently about the government's own capabilities, I would think that null hypothesis is that being added to the list has no ef

Based on everything we've learned recently about the government's own capabilities, I would think that null hypothesis is that being added to the list has no effect whatsoever. (Since the publication of the list is so much weaker than the government's internal capabilities, and that it is the latter that leads to arrest anyway, not some grocery clerk reporting in.) The easiest way to see this would be to assume there's a fairly close race on average between #10 and #11 in terms of wanted-ness, and so if we knew what the shortlist was and compared the incarceration dates of the runners-up we could figure out whether there's any effect at all to the publication proper.