5 ms·

While element of luck is involved, I hardly think getting caught is random. I think a lot depends on preparations and profile you keep.

mturmon 13y ago
All of these secondary factors (preparations, etc.) can themselves be regarded as "random" or at least unknowable in their extent and their effects. Much like lifetimes of individuals -- having some clear predictability on an individual basis, but in aggregate, well-modeled as random variables. To be a bit more abstract, just because something is "random" does not mean it cannot be characterized with a distribution, expected life, etc. The philosophical/mathematical effort at quantifying randomness has been called "The Taming of Chance".
- mildtrepidation 13y ago
  The effectiveness of preparation is not random. Charting the effectiveness of such efforts, were it possible to do so, might yield a random distribution; this does not, however, imply that "all of these secondary factors" can or should be "regarded as random" for anything more than a high-level treatment that becomes worthless in the (individual) context where it actually matters.
  - RA_Fisher 13y ago
    I tried to have a very light touch with the data. Most of what I do is non-parametric -- so in this sense, yes as an individual this analysis is only good if you believe there's some similarity between you and everyone that's ever been on the list (so a finite sample).
  - not_kurt_godel 13y ago
    You don't understand statistics very well.
rhizome 13y ago
If it was as simple as "preparation" and "profile," then how do any of them get caught? You'd think those protections would be relatively common knowledge, at least among criminals.
- mildtrepidation 13y ago
  I think it's reasonable to say the degree of preparation and profile management varies significantly between someone who stole a car and someone who masterminds attacks on tall buildings in New York. Preparation and profile are not "simple," nor are they black and white, as what those things actually mean is massively different from one situation to the next, criminal dealings or not. Characterizing them as something that either does or doesn't happen and does or doesn't entirely cancel the possibility of capture is not useful.
  - rhizome 13y ago
    Someone who stole a car doesn't make the FBI top 10.
    - TrainedMonkey 13y ago
      Depends on a car.
- 6d0debc071 13y ago
  I don't think criminal society is that well integrated. Nor that the people commonly a part of it are particularly 'with it' individuals. After all - drawing left to right top to bottom, from the FBI most wanted list as of shortly before this post - we have: 1) Kidnap and murder of a little girl 2) Beating and raping a woman in march 1998 - Alleged beating, raping and murder of a second woman while out on bail 3) Alleged Shooting and killing an armoured car driver outside a movie theatre and making off with the money. 4) 1987 escape from prison followed by a 1991 murder and subsequent escape from prison in Mexico after being arrested for drug trafficking 5) Racketeering, conspiracy to launder money instruments, conspiracy to have [assorted drugs] 6) Killing his wife and two children, then burning his house down. These aren't exactly Mensa candidates.

mturmon 13y ago

All of these secondary factors (preparations, etc.) can themselves be regarded as "random" or at least unknowable in their extent and their effects. Much like lifetimes of individuals -- having some clear predictability on an individual basis, but in aggregate, well-modeled as random variables. To be a bit more abstract, just because something is "random" does not mean it cannot be characterized with a distribution, expected life, etc. The philosophical/mathematical effort at quantifying randomness has been called "The Taming of Chance".

mildtrepidation 13y ago
The effectiveness of preparation is not random. Charting the effectiveness of such efforts, were it possible to do so, might yield a random distribution; this does not, however, imply that "all of these secondary factors" can or should be "regarded as random" for anything more than a high-level treatment that becomes worthless in the (individual) context where it actually matters.
- RA_Fisher 13y ago
  I tried to have a very light touch with the data. Most of what I do is non-parametric -- so in this sense, yes as an individual this analysis is only good if you believe there's some similarity between you and everyone that's ever been on the list (so a finite sample).
- not_kurt_godel 13y ago
  You don't understand statistics very well.

rhizome 13y ago

If it was as simple as "preparation" and "profile," then how do any of them get caught? You'd think those protections would be relatively common knowledge, at least among criminals.

mildtrepidation 13y ago
I think it's reasonable to say the degree of preparation and profile management varies significantly between someone who stole a car and someone who masterminds attacks on tall buildings in New York. Preparation and profile are not "simple," nor are they black and white, as what those things actually mean is massively different from one situation to the next, criminal dealings or not. Characterizing them as something that either does or doesn't happen and does or doesn't entirely cancel the possibility of capture is not useful.
- rhizome 13y ago
  Someone who stole a car doesn't make the FBI top 10.
  - TrainedMonkey 13y ago
    Depends on a car.
6d0debc071 13y ago
I don't think criminal society is that well integrated. Nor that the people commonly a part of it are particularly 'with it' individuals. After all - drawing left to right top to bottom, from the FBI most wanted list as of shortly before this post - we have: 1) Kidnap and murder of a little girl 2) Beating and raping a woman in march 1998 - Alleged beating, raping and murder of a second woman while out on bail 3) Alleged Shooting and killing an armoured car driver outside a movie theatre and making off with the money. 4) 1987 escape from prison followed by a 1991 murder and subsequent escape from prison in Mexico after being arrested for drug trafficking 5) Racketeering, conspiracy to launder money instruments, conspiracy to have [assorted drugs] 6) Killing his wife and two children, then burning his house down. These aren't exactly Mensa candidates.