This is hand waving based on dubious analogies. You keep repeating the same thing without providing any justification, proof or sense behind it, despite being g

This is hand waving based on dubious analogies. You keep repeating the same thing without providing any justification, proof or sense behind it, despite being given counterexamples and counterarguments. Please show me a mathematical derivation of this "simple" result, based on whatever statistical model you would like. We are not talking about the likelihood of an "explanation", we are talking about the likelihood of x causing y.