It's certainly plausible, but in theory, the point spread is supposed to account for that effect (among all other natural factors involved in play). As you sugg

It's certainly plausible, but in theory, the point spread is supposed to account for that effect (among all other natural factors involved in play). As you suggest in your second paragraph. Intellectually, of course, I tend to assume the Occam's Razor solution (i.e., natural variance and other effects over deliberate fixing) in most cases. I'm not one for conspiracy theories as a first line of thinking. And I think a bigger sample size is needed to begin with. Another thing to keep in mind is that -- at least in theory -- players aren't supposed to be cognizant of a point spread when playing. If we wanted to detect deliberate point shaving, we'd need to look at instances where the player behaved as if he was very aware of the spread and was actively trying to manage it. For example, he actively takes possession of the ball and runs out the clock, misses easy shots, passes into heavy coverage, and then reverses course to correct when/if he goes too far. Basically, the behavior of someone who's trying hard in either direction, as opposed to someone who just tries hard to secure the win and then lets up.