"Maybe there’s a slight tendency for teams in the 10-20% range to win at a slightly higher rate than expected (and consequently teams in the 80-90% range to los

"Maybe there’s a slight tendency for teams in the 10-20% range to win at a slightly higher rate than expected (and consequently teams in the 80-90% range to lose more than expected), but the difference is pretty small, and given the number of observations and parameters, it would not be surprising if this deviation occurred completely randomly." This is a well known phenomena [1] that manifests in almost all prediction markets. People tend to overestimate the likelihood of likely events, and underestimate the chance of a rare events. If you're patient (and, importantly, trading fees are low enough) then it is usually possible to profit from these "sure thing" positions over many event 1. Just one of the many links you find in google on the subject: http://journal.sjdm.org/9729b/jdm9729b.html http://journal.sjdm.org/9729b/jdm9729b.html