I wonder how much better the prediction market does compared to a predictive model based on the score and time remaining. Given data on the games, it would be p

I wonder how much better the prediction market does compared to a predictive model based on the score and time remaining. Given data on the games, it would be pretty easy to develop a model on the P(winning|scores,time_remaining). Would that do as well as humans in aggregate? Obviously it doesn't take into account momentum, how well the teams are playing, etc.