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He computes "hotness" for soccer (football, to me) matches too: http://www.gambletron2000.com/?sport=epl%2Cchampions http://www.gambletron2000.com/?sport=epl%2C

He computes "hotness" for soccer (football, to me) matches too: http://www.gambletron2000.com/?sport=epl%2Cchampions http://www.gambletron2000.com/?sport=epl%2Cchampions As you'd imagine, each goal brings about a massive spike in implied win/loss probability.

gomox 13y ago
Wow, very cool. The jumps in the odds are so clear you could probably cross that with a live video feed (or a Twitter stream) to automatically summarize the milestones in a game (goals, penalty kicks, injuries). PS: Football in Argentina as well :)
nicolsc 13y ago
The hotness factor is only based on the outcome of the ongoing game. It should also consider the live impact on classification/awards. Have a look at yesterday's CL game between Paris & Leverkusen : http://www.gambletron2000.com/events/2276/paris-st-g-v-leverkusen http://www.gambletron2000.com/events/2276/paris-st-g-v-lever..., which was the second of a 2-legs opposition, Paris having won 4-0 on the first one. Which means 99.9% chances of qualifying It has a _mildly hot_ 762 score, where it should have been between 0 and 10. As the game was almost meaningless, the fact that Leverkusen scored first before finally losing the game didn't bring any excitation.
- iamwithnail 13y ago
  Yeah, but that score is based on in match betting, rather than "to qualify", no? So what I find most interesting there is that the odds continued to rise for PSG after the goal, even though people (like me) put money on when they went behind -better odds, and cheers for the £20. The crucial thing that's at issue with this system is that it's not just the weight of money that's at work here, but also the bookies adjusting the odds to ensure their book is still green, and to encourage/discourAge people putting further weight on particular outcomes. Tl;dr - the method is really interesting, but imperfect because it's not a pure market, I think. Bet fair odds or similar would be interesting, but their API is horrendous.

gomox 13y ago

Wow, very cool. The jumps in the odds are so clear you could probably cross that with a live video feed (or a Twitter stream) to automatically summarize the milestones in a game (goals, penalty kicks, injuries). PS: Football in Argentina as well :)

nicolsc 13y ago

The hotness factor is only based on the outcome of the ongoing game. It should also consider the live impact on classification/awards. Have a look at yesterday's CL game between Paris & Leverkusen : http://www.gambletron2000.com/events/2276/paris-st-g-v-leverkusen http://www.gambletron2000.com/events/2276/paris-st-g-v-lever..., which was the second of a 2-legs opposition, Paris having won 4-0 on the first one. Which means 99.9% chances of qualifying It has a _mildly hot_ 762 score, where it should have been between 0 and 10. As the game was almost meaningless, the fact that Leverkusen scored first before finally losing the game didn't bring any excitation.

iamwithnail 13y ago
Yeah, but that score is based on in match betting, rather than "to qualify", no? So what I find most interesting there is that the odds continued to rise for PSG after the goal, even though people (like me) put money on when they went behind -better odds, and cheers for the £20. The crucial thing that's at issue with this system is that it's not just the weight of money that's at work here, but also the bookies adjusting the odds to ensure their book is still green, and to encourage/discourAge people putting further weight on particular outcomes. Tl;dr - the method is really interesting, but imperfect because it's not a pure market, I think. Bet fair odds or similar would be interesting, but their API is horrendous.