4 ms·
Lets calculate. Assuming u work for $70k/year usually .. the expected payout shud be $3.5m after 1 year for the offer to be reasonable. This is an expected payo
by randomhack 19y ago
Lets calculate. Assuming u work for $70k/year usually .. the expected payout shud be $3.5m after 1 year for the offer to be reasonable. This is an expected payout .. assuming a 33% chances of success given that its a "good" idea .. the company shud be worth at least $10.5m a year later. Given that u are taking such a risk .. and will do lots of the work .. u want 3-5 times that money at the very least .. so do u think the company might be worth $50m one year down the road with a proability of 33%?
Hmm .. the calculation is really slightly orthogonal to ur question perhaps
- ajkates 19y agohaha, wtf? I understand what you're trying to achieve with this mathematical model, but I couldn't follow your logic at all...
- randomhack 19y agoSorry .. that was just a random thought in my brain .. heres the reasoning in reverse .. assuming the company is worth $50m after an year with a probability of 33% and worth zilch with probability of 67%, and assuming that u have a 2% stake .. expected payout = 0.33 x 50 x 0.02 = 330k. the estimate was optimistic in my opinion. so i wud say a 2% stake is not worth it. its probably better to spend 1 year building ur own company i.e. one in which u have a significantly higher share. but of course it still doesnt answer the question i guess