5 ms·
Show HN: Zentrade.io – Bitcoin Prediction Markets
- markmassie 13y agoJust signed up. One suggestion: two-factor authentication. After so many hacks, 2FA should be available on any site that holds users' bitcoin.
- yimmy123 13y agoyou mean two factor authentication for signups? or for what specifically?
- hisabness 13y agohe means for signing in after you've registered.
- gtsui 13y agoThanks for the suggestion! I'll look into implementing that.
- graycoder 13y agoCheck out Authy. Coinbase uses it and it's really user friendly.
- markmassie 13y agoAgreed. Authy is great.
- panarky 13y ago1. How does Zentrade differ from Predictious? 2. I won't send bitcoin to a site that can't prove it controls the keys for 100% of customer deposits. 3. Obama vs. Romney?
- gtsui 13y ago1. Predictious uses the more traditional market-making model (as in financial markets). This is fine in more liquid markets, but in markets with habitually sparse bettors as is usual with prediction markets, it is better to have an in-theory infinite liquidity betting pattern (e.g. modified parimutuel, as Zentrade uses) so that you can make your bets at any time rather than waiting for someone to publish a price. 2. Reliability and trust are big things to us. How would you suggest we implement this to show customers? 3. 2016? Not sure I'd be betting on either there...
- Xdes 13y ago2. https://github.com/olalonde/blind-solvency-proof https://github.com/olalonde/blind-solvency-proof, https://github.com/ConceptPending/proveit https://github.com/ConceptPending/proveit
- yummyfajitas 13y agoSo this has the same flaw that Predictious has. It's building a BTC bank in addition to a prediction market. That's the easiest thing to build, coming from a world of traditional fiat money banking. But BTC enables something superior - 2of3 transactions between betters. We create a 3 way transaction - Long says "I want the money". Short says "I want the money". When the bet is concluded the arbitrator says "Long won, give me 1%." The arbitrator can never go insolvent - in fact, the arbitrator never needs to hold a single bitcoin.
- brador 13y agoWhat if the loser refuses to pay? How does the arbitrator get the coins without holding coins?
- dispense 13y agoThere is no such thing. In a 2 out of 3 transaction, 2 out of 3 parties have to agree for the transaction to happen. Thus, if the winner agrees and the arbitrator also agrees, the transactions is conducted. It's a cryptographically secure agreement.
- brador 13y agoWhat if the arbitrator is colluding with the loser?
- yummyfajitas 13y agoThis problem is not solved via 2of3 transactions. It can be partially mitigated by requiring multiple arbitrators (e.g. a 4/5 transaction with 3 hopefluly independent arbitrators).
- dllthomas 13y agoUnfortunately, there's no really good way of establishing that two pseudonyms are not held by the same person, in a decentralized system. Doubly so when legal enforcement isn't available. Of course abuse is harder the more arbitrators you incorporate, but expense and difficulty are higher as well.
- driverdan 13y agoNo transparency? No thanks.
- deleted 13y ago[deleted]
- gojomo 13y agoParimutuel betting pools are less attractive to truly savvy bettors, profit-motivated and deep-pocketed, because there's no way to be sure your advanced insight, at a particular point in time, will have a positive expectation when the betting is done.