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On the whole, it's tough to say. But parts of it were certainly prophetic. The rise of Android is, at least to a degree, testament to the fact that a lot of dev

On the whole, it's tough to say. But parts of it were certainly prophetic. The rise of Android is, at least to a degree, testament to the fact that a lot of developers believe Android is a better platform. This is a crucial passage: "But Android is an orphan; Google doesn't really care about it, not the way Apple cares about the iPhone. Apple cares about the iPhone the way Google cares about search." Google ended up caring a great deal about Android. Maybe it didn't in 2009. Maybe it did, and it was just taking time to figure things out. But it's hard to argue now that Google doesn't take Android seriously. And now Android is a big threat to iOS. In any event, I wouldn't say PG was wrong about this point. Rather, I'd say that hindsight is 20/20. Android was in its infancy when PG wrote the essay, and he was correct in calling it out as a viable threat to iOS. I don't necessarily agree with the "why" of it, though. Android's rise isn't really the result of arrogance on Apple's part. It's largely the result of two factors: 1) its distribution as a decentralized platform; 2) the price-competitiveness of Android devices. To the extent a lot of developers prefer Android to iOS, it's an opportunistic preference -- not a moral or philosophical one. Developers will go where the users are. More and more users are on Android. A secondary factor is that Android is an easier testing and deployment environment.

IBM 13y ago
Android isn't a threat to Apple, Android just replaced the incumbents Blackberry and Nokia. There is no Android OEM that can go head to head with Apple in the market they compete in but Samsung (high-end phones), and even there Samsung is losing ground to Apple. Market share is only an important statistic because it may influence developers to focus on one platform or the other. But Apple had great developers and apps on OSX on smaller market share and a smaller install base, so there's no way iOS is going to stop being a developer focus. As for what concerns Apple and their business, as long as they keep selling more iOS devices every year than they did the last year, they don't really care how small their market share is. Market share could get so tiny that developers decide to switch to Android-first, but as of now iOS still holds the crown. Without other metrics like user engagement turning against Apple, developers have no reason to be Android-first.
- jonnathanson 13y ago
  "Android isn't a threat to Apple, Android just replaced the incumbents Blackberry and Nokia." I'd say it's entirely too early to call the ball here. The long game for both Apple and Google isn't limited to phones and tablets; it's to gain platform ubiquity across all devices, across all aspects of your daily life. Both platforms have a very strong horse in that race, and I'd have a tough time betting on one or the other right now.
- alexeisadeski3 13y ago
  There is no Android OEM that can go head to head with Apple in the market they compete in but Samsung (high-end phones) Moto X
melling 13y ago
No, the rise of Android has everything to do with the fact that it's free, and supports many vendors, etc. It was pretty obvious in 2008 when I was telling everyone that Android was going to be big: http://www.meetup.com/ny-tech/messages/4171610/ http://www.meetup.com/ny-tech/messages/4171610/ It has absolutely nothing to do with being better. Apple simply gives up 80-90% percent of the market by being a premium phone.
- jonnathanson 13y ago
  "No, the rise of Android has everything to do with the fact that it's free, and supports many vendors, etc." As I said in my post: "its distribution as a decentralized platform." You and I are not in disagreement here. I didn't say Android was a "better" platform. I said that a lot of developers consider it to be. And I went on to qualify what I meant by that, i.e., that it's got wide distribution and can be used to deploy and test rapidly. As I mentioned, it's an "opportunistic preference." I don't think developers have been alienated by Apple the way PG predicted they would be.
  - melling 13y ago
    Why do they consider it to be better? I've done Android and iOS and iOS is a lot easier to develop software. Android is improving but Apple still wins. Anyway, that doesn't really matter either. Which market currently provides the best possibility for real income? I'll put in the extra work on Android if there are more paying customers. From a business point of view, one should be following the money and not playing "think like a geek" and rationalize it through technical issues.
theswan 13y ago
In a way, I think Google really did orphan "Android," the open source project. Key parts of the current Android experience (Google Now, Google launcher, music player, Hangouts/Messaging, etc.) are now closed source and only available to OEM parnters who sign with Google (http://www.tested.com/tech/android/458759-android-44-kitkat-could-finally-unify-android-cost-open-source-principals/ http://www.tested.com/tech/android/458759-android-44-kitkat-...). The AOSP equivalent components are painfully ancient. This has happened over the last few years as Google began exercising more control over the platform and secure a better experience; now - there's Android, the somewhat orphaned OSS, and Android, the Google experience OS.
Steko 13y ago
The rise of Android has nothing to do with developers choosing Android over iOS. This is true most obviously because developers haven't chosen Android over iOS.
- weixiyen 13y ago
  exactly. The rise of Android is due to the consumers choosing Android over iOS. If anything, developers have only slowed the growth of Android by committing in many cases only to iOS.
  - Steko 13y ago
    In most cases the consumers aren't even choosing Android over iOS. Apple doesn't even have a product for the bottom 50%+ of the market -- that part of the market was just defaulted to Android because MS dropped the ball for several years. Secondly, in many other cases the carriers naturally need alternatives that give them some leverage against Apple and have higher margins for them. There are no spiffs for salespeople for selling iphones.
  - sjwright 13y ago
    I don't know what it's like in the US, but the rise of Android in Australia is overwhelmingly because the telcos and phone stores are pushing Android over iOS. Sure, they have the marketing posters in the shop window and the inkjet printed signs confirming they have stock of iPhone 5S in gold. But walk in the store, and it's a completely different story: Android everywhere, and salespeople that seem to universally push alternatives. It's understandable. Whenever a new model is released, Apple's constrained supply means these store's daily profits are dictated by whatever supply Apple decides to give them. They're likely getting much smaller margins than other brands, and therefore limited in their ability to lure customers with discounts. -- As far as I can tell, Android owners fall into these categories: 1. Educated customers that genuinely want an Android-only advantage (e.g. oversized screen) 2. Uneducated customers who bought whatever the salesperson recommended. 3. People with tight budgets or low expectations that might otherwise have purchased a feature-phone. 4. Counter-trend hipsters who think Apple is too mainstream. Seriously. I know quite a few people who fit this category. 5. Stupid Google fanboys who are convinced Android is amazing open source nirvana, and probably haven't ever owned an iPhone anyway... because they're not an stupid Apple fanboy.

IBM 13y ago

Android isn't a threat to Apple, Android just replaced the incumbents Blackberry and Nokia. There is no Android OEM that can go head to head with Apple in the market they compete in but Samsung (high-end phones), and even there Samsung is losing ground to Apple. Market share is only an important statistic because it may influence developers to focus on one platform or the other. But Apple had great developers and apps on OSX on smaller market share and a smaller install base, so there's no way iOS is going to stop being a developer focus. As for what concerns Apple and their business, as long as they keep selling more iOS devices every year than they did the last year, they don't really care how small their market share is. Market share could get so tiny that developers decide to switch to Android-first, but as of now iOS still holds the crown. Without other metrics like user engagement turning against Apple, developers have no reason to be Android-first.

jonnathanson 13y ago
"Android isn't a threat to Apple, Android just replaced the incumbents Blackberry and Nokia." I'd say it's entirely too early to call the ball here. The long game for both Apple and Google isn't limited to phones and tablets; it's to gain platform ubiquity across all devices, across all aspects of your daily life. Both platforms have a very strong horse in that race, and I'd have a tough time betting on one or the other right now.
alexeisadeski3 13y ago
There is no Android OEM that can go head to head with Apple in the market they compete in but Samsung (high-end phones) Moto X

melling 13y ago

No, the rise of Android has everything to do with the fact that it's free, and supports many vendors, etc. It was pretty obvious in 2008 when I was telling everyone that Android was going to be big: http://www.meetup.com/ny-tech/messages/4171610/ http://www.meetup.com/ny-tech/messages/4171610/ It has absolutely nothing to do with being better. Apple simply gives up 80-90% percent of the market by being a premium phone.

jonnathanson 13y ago
"No, the rise of Android has everything to do with the fact that it's free, and supports many vendors, etc." As I said in my post: "its distribution as a decentralized platform." You and I are not in disagreement here. I didn't say Android was a "better" platform. I said that a lot of developers consider it to be. And I went on to qualify what I meant by that, i.e., that it's got wide distribution and can be used to deploy and test rapidly. As I mentioned, it's an "opportunistic preference." I don't think developers have been alienated by Apple the way PG predicted they would be.
- melling 13y ago
  Why do they consider it to be better? I've done Android and iOS and iOS is a lot easier to develop software. Android is improving but Apple still wins. Anyway, that doesn't really matter either. Which market currently provides the best possibility for real income? I'll put in the extra work on Android if there are more paying customers. From a business point of view, one should be following the money and not playing "think like a geek" and rationalize it through technical issues.

theswan 13y ago

In a way, I think Google really did orphan "Android," the open source project. Key parts of the current Android experience (Google Now, Google launcher, music player, Hangouts/Messaging, etc.) are now closed source and only available to OEM parnters who sign with Google (http://www.tested.com/tech/android/458759-android-44-kitkat-could-finally-unify-android-cost-open-source-principals/ http://www.tested.com/tech/android/458759-android-44-kitkat-...). The AOSP equivalent components are painfully ancient. This has happened over the last few years as Google began exercising more control over the platform and secure a better experience; now - there's Android, the somewhat orphaned OSS, and Android, the Google experience OS.

Steko 13y ago

The rise of Android has nothing to do with developers choosing Android over iOS. This is true most obviously because developers haven't chosen Android over iOS.

weixiyen 13y ago
exactly. The rise of Android is due to the consumers choosing Android over iOS. If anything, developers have only slowed the growth of Android by committing in many cases only to iOS.
- Steko 13y ago
  In most cases the consumers aren't even choosing Android over iOS. Apple doesn't even have a product for the bottom 50%+ of the market -- that part of the market was just defaulted to Android because MS dropped the ball for several years. Secondly, in many other cases the carriers naturally need alternatives that give them some leverage against Apple and have higher margins for them. There are no spiffs for salespeople for selling iphones.
- sjwright 13y ago
  I don't know what it's like in the US, but the rise of Android in Australia is overwhelmingly because the telcos and phone stores are pushing Android over iOS. Sure, they have the marketing posters in the shop window and the inkjet printed signs confirming they have stock of iPhone 5S in gold. But walk in the store, and it's a completely different story: Android everywhere, and salespeople that seem to universally push alternatives. It's understandable. Whenever a new model is released, Apple's constrained supply means these store's daily profits are dictated by whatever supply Apple decides to give them. They're likely getting much smaller margins than other brands, and therefore limited in their ability to lure customers with discounts. -- As far as I can tell, Android owners fall into these categories: 1. Educated customers that genuinely want an Android-only advantage (e.g. oversized screen) 2. Uneducated customers who bought whatever the salesperson recommended. 3. People with tight budgets or low expectations that might otherwise have purchased a feature-phone. 4. Counter-trend hipsters who think Apple is too mainstream. Seriously. I know quite a few people who fit this category. 5. Stupid Google fanboys who are convinced Android is amazing open source nirvana, and probably haven't ever owned an iPhone anyway... because they're not an stupid Apple fanboy.