4 ms·

Failure is an option

55 points by billderose 13y ago

millstone 13y ago
> I have some predictions: Gox will not be bailed out. MtGox will not be bailed out because of the relative unimportance of bitcoin to the larger economy, not of any high-minded free market idealism. Since the MtGox explosion, bitcoin prices (and therefore real purchasing power) are down by about 30%. If bitcoin were a national currency, the government would be doing everything in its power to prevent such a decline, including saving MtGox by any means possible. It would absolutely be too big to fail. By way of comparison, Greece's economic woes drove its real purchasing power down by about 11%.
- Pitarou 13y ago
  I think the writer was comparing Mt. Gox to certain US financial institutions, not Greece. And this isn't "high-minded free market idealism". It's a practical observation. The state has given unconditional support to large financial institutions; institutions that are owned and managed for private profit. How can that possibly end well?
  - thesimpsons1022 13y ago
    the writer is the owner of the blockchain website so he does have his biases
    - ok_craig 13y ago
      He is not the owner, he is the CSO.
    - VanV 13y ago
      FWIW, my understanding is that he is just the chief security officer at Blockchain.info [1], and not one of the owners. [1] http://antonopoulos.com/ http://antonopoulos.com/
- chkpt 13y ago
  The problem is that there is a central authority that gets to decide "relative importance". Even granting that, isn't it perverse that this authority, having presumably decided what is and isn't of "relative importance", lacks the foresight to prevent the agents of these relatively important institutions to bring entire economies to the edge of the precipice?
kens 13y ago
If Mt Gox were a bank, it wouldn't be big enough to make the Wikipedia list of US bank failures: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_U.S._bank_failures http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_U.S._bank_failu... (I don't have a hidden agenda with that comment - I just found it interesting.) And on a totally unrelated note, pivoting off the title: I think the "failure is not an option" philosophy led to a lot of NASA's problems.
- gpcz 13y ago
  Can you expand on your opinion regarding NASA's problems stemming from "failure is not an option?" Based on Gene Kranz's Wikipedia page, specifically the "Failure is not an option" section ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gene_Kranz#.22Failure_is_not_an_option.22 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gene_Kranz#.22Failure_is_not_an... ), this is a complicated and controversial topic.
victoro 13y ago
Failure has always been an option in small, unproven, socially unimportant markets. It really shouldn't take 7 paragraphs to compare apples to oranges...
- dalai 13y ago
  I think his point was that is should also be an option in large, proven and socially important markets.
henrik_w 13y ago
In line with the thinking in "Antifragile" by Taleb - failures of individuals in a population makes the the population as a whole stronger. The forrest fire example is also in the book - artificially "stabilizing" a system only sets it up for a bigger disruption later. Great book, with lots of interesting ideas.

55 points by billderose 13y ago

> I have some predictions: Gox will not be bailed out. MtGox will not be bailed out because of the relative unimportance of bitcoin to the larger economy, not of any high-minded free market idealism. Since the MtGox explosion, bitcoin prices (and therefore real purchasing power) are down by about 30%. If bitcoin were a national currency, the government would be doing everything in its power to prevent such a decline, including saving MtGox by any means possible. It would absolutely be too big to fail. By way of comparison, Greece's economic woes drove its real purchasing power down by about 11%.

Pitarou 13y ago
I think the writer was comparing Mt. Gox to certain US financial institutions, not Greece. And this isn't "high-minded free market idealism". It's a practical observation. The state has given unconditional support to large financial institutions; institutions that are owned and managed for private profit. How can that possibly end well?
- thesimpsons1022 13y ago
  the writer is the owner of the blockchain website so he does have his biases
  - ok_craig 13y ago
    He is not the owner, he is the CSO.
  - VanV 13y ago
    FWIW, my understanding is that he is just the chief security officer at Blockchain.info [1], and not one of the owners. [1] http://antonopoulos.com/ http://antonopoulos.com/
chkpt 13y ago
The problem is that there is a central authority that gets to decide "relative importance". Even granting that, isn't it perverse that this authority, having presumably decided what is and isn't of "relative importance", lacks the foresight to prevent the agents of these relatively important institutions to bring entire economies to the edge of the precipice?

kens 13y ago

If Mt Gox were a bank, it wouldn't be big enough to make the Wikipedia list of US bank failures: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_U.S._bank_failures http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_U.S._bank_failu... (I don't have a hidden agenda with that comment - I just found it interesting.) And on a totally unrelated note, pivoting off the title: I think the "failure is not an option" philosophy led to a lot of NASA's problems.

gpcz 13y ago
Can you expand on your opinion regarding NASA's problems stemming from "failure is not an option?" Based on Gene Kranz's Wikipedia page, specifically the "Failure is not an option" section ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gene_Kranz#.22Failure_is_not_an_option.22 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gene_Kranz#.22Failure_is_not_an... ), this is a complicated and controversial topic.

victoro 13y ago

Failure has always been an option in small, unproven, socially unimportant markets. It really shouldn't take 7 paragraphs to compare apples to oranges...

dalai 13y ago
I think his point was that is should also be an option in large, proven and socially important markets.

henrik_w 13y ago

In line with the thinking in "Antifragile" by Taleb - failures of individuals in a population makes the the population as a whole stronger. The forrest fire example is also in the book - artificially "stabilizing" a system only sets it up for a bigger disruption later. Great book, with lots of interesting ideas.