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It is definitely on it's way out. We are having more and more trouble scaling to volume production for each production node. 14nm is behind schedule. 9nm is goi
by ssdfsdf 13y ago
It is definitely on it's way out. We are having more and more trouble scaling to volume production for each production node. 14nm is behind schedule. 9nm is going to be harder and no one is really sure how to get down to 5nm. Beyond 5nm parts of the transistor will need to be smaller than an atom. We are hitting a wall, predictions are that by 2020 the cost of developing new manufacturing techniques will not justify the return. A fundamentally new substrate or perhaps paradigm will be required to push us forward. This will need to be revolutionary not evolutionary in nature. This is not guaranteed to be forthcoming in time to continue Moore's law.
- p1esk 13y ago> It is definitely on it's way out. People have been saying that for decades. Experts claimed it would be impossible to shrink transistors below 1 micron. When that was done, other experts claimed it's impossible to shrink below 100nm. Yes, Intel does not know how to build 5nm transistors, which are 3 process generations away from the current state of the art (14nm - 10nm - 7nm - 5nm). It's always been like that - for example, when Intel released 90nm technology, they didn't know how to do 22nm. Yes, a new paradigm or substrate might be required to get there, so what? There's no shortage of new ideas, or new materials. Graphene is looking pretty good. Can't shrink it below atomic dimensions? Put another layer on top! The only thing that can kill Moore's Law is lack of demand. But as long as people want faster, more efficient computers, they will be getting faster and more efficient. And I don't see the demand decreasing any time soon.