3 ms·
Ask HN: Is the market efficient or not?
I suppose this is the defining question of our century. What do you guys think?
- yan 17y agoI don't believe it is in the short term efficient nor that its self-correcting, in the short term. In my opinion, the only way to reliably make money is to have insider information. People day-trading with no non-public information are trying to extract patterns from noise.
- tokenadult 17y agoThe old saying attributed to John Maynard Keynes is that the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
- thunk 17y agoA market's efficiency is inversely proportional to its complexity -- proportional, that is, to the average understanding of its participants.
- rwolf 17y agoThe EMH doesn't take in to account arbitrage risk (http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1292533 http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1292533) among other things. Bonus questions: Is it so inefficient that models based on EMH should be replaced? Is there a better assumption we can base finance on?
- deleted 17y ago[deleted]