5 ms·

Tesla will reach $500 per share within 3 years, if not sooner. When Gen3 comes out, it'll basically be the iPhone of cars. Everybody will want one. The stock d

by goeric 13y ago

Tesla will reach $500 per share within 3 years, if not sooner. When Gen3 comes out, it'll basically be the iPhone of cars. Everybody will want one. The stock does seem a bit overvalued currently and I wouldn't be surprised to see some drops in the coming weeks. But regardless, $500 within 3 years. Mark my words.

kudu 13y ago
> Everybody will want one. How many people do you think can afford a ~$100k vehicle?
- josh-wrale 13y ago
  The Gen. 3 is expected to be much cheaper than ~$100k.
- adamkittelson 13y ago
  The Gen3 vehicle is supposed to be ~30-40k.
- catshirt 13y ago
  the argument when the iPhone was released was similar
  - smackfu 13y ago
    And they did drop the price (via subsidies), and it got way more popular...
    - catshirt 13y ago
      yep. and they get cheaper over time as the market provides competition and technology advances. there will also be a larger pre-owned market and more supply.
- angersock 13y ago
  They don't need to afford it to be dumb enough to sign on a loan for one. Tesla gets the sales revenue, and later the customer goes to collections. Everyone wins.
qdpb 13y ago
Is stock overvalued at $250 or is it going to be worth $500 within 3 years? It really can't be both.
- lutusp 13y ago
  Of course it can -- the company's real value could easily close that gap in three years. Also, equity pricing is as much about psychology as it is about real value. A stock's value is equal to what people are willing to pay for it.
- arg01 13y ago
  Stock price should include risk. Just like a lottery ticket might be worth $0.5 and costs $1 to buy that doesn't mean that after the draw it's not worth buying it off someone for $10 dollars. In this case I'd expect that he is also suggesting that he believes the stock to be overvalued on typical ways to evaluate stock but from what he believes the company will actually accomplish he thinks the value is higher.
  - qdpb 13y ago
    Note that I'm criticizing this beliefs, and not the distribution of future probabilities. Of course company might be overvalued now at $250, and sure, it might hit $500 later. But if you're certain it will be $500 in three years, you need some serious risk aversion (~2500bps) to think it's not worth buying it now at $250. In other words, by saying it will grow to $500 you're expressing your view on value; this value is higher than price, so stock is undervalued.
hnnewguy 13y ago
>Tesla will reach $500 per share within 3 years, if not sooner. And what valuation model are you using to arrive at this price? It seems odd that you consider it overpriced now, when the growth in the future that you're attributing to the Gen 3 is already priced in. TSLA is great, and changed the auto game. But people are seriously underestimating the competition that is coming in the EV space, thanks to Tesla's success.

by goeric 13y ago

kudu 13y ago

> Everybody will want one. How many people do you think can afford a ~$100k vehicle?

josh-wrale 13y ago
The Gen. 3 is expected to be much cheaper than ~$100k.
adamkittelson 13y ago
The Gen3 vehicle is supposed to be ~30-40k.
catshirt 13y ago
the argument when the iPhone was released was similar
- smackfu 13y ago
  And they did drop the price (via subsidies), and it got way more popular...
  - catshirt 13y ago
    yep. and they get cheaper over time as the market provides competition and technology advances. there will also be a larger pre-owned market and more supply.
angersock 13y ago
They don't need to afford it to be dumb enough to sign on a loan for one. Tesla gets the sales revenue, and later the customer goes to collections. Everyone wins.

qdpb 13y ago

Is stock overvalued at $250 or is it going to be worth $500 within 3 years? It really can't be both.

lutusp 13y ago
Of course it can -- the company's real value could easily close that gap in three years. Also, equity pricing is as much about psychology as it is about real value. A stock's value is equal to what people are willing to pay for it.
arg01 13y ago
Stock price should include risk. Just like a lottery ticket might be worth $0.5 and costs $1 to buy that doesn't mean that after the draw it's not worth buying it off someone for $10 dollars. In this case I'd expect that he is also suggesting that he believes the stock to be overvalued on typical ways to evaluate stock but from what he believes the company will actually accomplish he thinks the value is higher.
- qdpb 13y ago
  Note that I'm criticizing this beliefs, and not the distribution of future probabilities. Of course company might be overvalued now at $250, and sure, it might hit $500 later. But if you're certain it will be $500 in three years, you need some serious risk aversion (~2500bps) to think it's not worth buying it now at $250. In other words, by saying it will grow to $500 you're expressing your view on value; this value is higher than price, so stock is undervalued.

hnnewguy 13y ago

>Tesla will reach $500 per share within 3 years, if not sooner. And what valuation model are you using to arrive at this price? It seems odd that you consider it overpriced now, when the growth in the future that you're attributing to the Gen 3 is already priced in. TSLA is great, and changed the auto game. But people are seriously underestimating the competition that is coming in the EV space, thanks to Tesla's success.