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> What on earth? A positive correlation is a fact. You know, you could just learn how science works. Did you follow the link I provided? It shows that correlat

by lutusp 13y ago

> What on earth? A positive correlation is a fact. You know, you could just learn how science works. Did you follow the link I provided? It shows that correlations mean nothing without an explanation. > This is like looking in a microscope and saying, 'ah, none of this data is true until we have a theory which can explain it'. Yes, and that is exactly how science works -- observation means nothing unless and until it addresses a theory. But to show you what you're missing, let's do a little experiment. Let's say I'm a doctor and I've created a revolutionary cure for the common cold. My cure is to shake a dried gourd over the cold sufferer until he gets better. The cure might take a week, but it always works. My method is repeatable and perfectly reliable, and I've published my cure in a refereed scientific journal (there are now any number of phony refereed scientific journals). And, because (in this thought experiment) your version of science can get along without defining theories, I'm under no obligation to try to explain my cure, or consider alternative explanations for my breakthrough — I only have to describe it, as you seem to think. Because I've cured the common cold, and because I've met all the requirements that you feel are necessary for science, I deserve a Nobel Prize. Yes or no?

gwern 13y ago
> You know, you could just learn how science works. Your condescension is hilarious. > Because I've cured the common cold, and because I've met all the requirements that you feel are necessary for science, I deserve a Nobel Prize. Yes or no? No. My observation of your claimed data is fine, but it is an additional matter of interpretation to make any causal claims, or claim external or internal validity. What you are not getting is that the correlation stands on its own. It's when you try to read into it some other claim (and I use the pronoun 'you' very deliberately here), like 'the rich are rich solely because they are smart' or 'only smart people are rich' or 'the rich are morally better', and are revolted by them, that you try to pretend the data doesn't exist. It does. Deal.
- lutusp 13y ago
  >> You know, you could just learn how science works. > Your condescension is hilarious. When one seen someone assume a correlation has a meaning not proven in the evidence, it's not condescension, it's charity. > What you are not getting is that the correlation stands on its own. Yes, as does the causal relationship between puddles and rain in advance of an attempt to offer an explanation: puddles predict rainfall. > but it is an additional matter of interpretation to make any causal claims, or claim external or internal validity. Yes, and now that you're reduced to making my points for me, we're done.
  - gwern 13y ago
    > Yes, as does the causal relationship between puddles and rain in advance of an attempt to offer an explanation: puddles predict rainfall. Indeed, it does. Which is why a puddle-denier is a sad sight. 'There can't be puddles because no one has offered a fully-comprehensive theory which predicts puddles and which I find acceptable! Why must people be so puddleist?' > Yes, and now that you're reduced to making my points for me, we're done. Denying your fallacious original overreadings and adopting your opponent's criticisms and claiming to have held them all along, while flattering, is still very annoying.
  - gwern 13y ago
    > When one seen someone assume a correlation has a meaning not proven in the evidence, it's not condescension, it's charity. Where did I assume a meaning? My point was simple: you were trying to pretend the data doesn't exist by directly contradicting the very definition of what a correlation is. I am not committing myself to any further framework or theory or causal model of how the correlation comes into existence. > Yes, as does the causal relationship between puddles and rain in advance of an attempt to offer an explanation: puddles predict rainfall. Indeed, it does. Which is why a puddle-denier is a sad sight. 'There can't be puddles because no one has offered a fully-comprehensive theory which predicts puddles and which I find acceptable! Why must people be so puddleist?' > Yes, and now that you're reduced to making my points for me, we're done. Denying your fallacious original overreadings and adopting your opponent's criticisms and claiming to have held them all along, while flattering, is still very annoying.
    - lutusp 13y ago
      >> When one seen someone assume a correlation has a meaning not proven in the evidence, it's not condescension, it's charity. > Where did I assume a meaning? Apart from the correlation, when you began speaking as though an I.Q. test measures intelligence. Even the current test's designer denies that. > you were trying to pretend the data doesn't exist ... Citation needed. You're using words I never used to assert a claim I never made. I never claimed that data don't exist, I made the point that without evidence for a connection, the correlation has no meaning. And I proved it with multiple examples. > Denying your fallacious original overreadings ... I see that you still need to learn the role of evidence.
dllthomas 13y ago
gwern did not say you were done doing science when you observe the correlation, or that you can read in more meaning, just that there being a correlation does mean that there is a correlation. If I look at a population, and find a perfect linear fit between net worth and height, I can say that in that population "wealthy people are taller" as a descriptive fact about that population without making any particular claim as to why.

by lutusp 13y ago

gwern 13y ago

> You know, you could just learn how science works. Your condescension is hilarious. > Because I've cured the common cold, and because I've met all the requirements that you feel are necessary for science, I deserve a Nobel Prize. Yes or no? No. My observation of your claimed data is fine, but it is an additional matter of interpretation to make any causal claims, or claim external or internal validity. What you are not getting is that the correlation stands on its own. It's when you try to read into it some other claim (and I use the pronoun 'you' very deliberately here), like 'the rich are rich solely because they are smart' or 'only smart people are rich' or 'the rich are morally better', and are revolted by them, that you try to pretend the data doesn't exist. It does. Deal.

lutusp 13y ago
>> You know, you could just learn how science works. > Your condescension is hilarious. When one seen someone assume a correlation has a meaning not proven in the evidence, it's not condescension, it's charity. > What you are not getting is that the correlation stands on its own. Yes, as does the causal relationship between puddles and rain in advance of an attempt to offer an explanation: puddles predict rainfall. > but it is an additional matter of interpretation to make any causal claims, or claim external or internal validity. Yes, and now that you're reduced to making my points for me, we're done.
- gwern 13y ago
  > Yes, as does the causal relationship between puddles and rain in advance of an attempt to offer an explanation: puddles predict rainfall. Indeed, it does. Which is why a puddle-denier is a sad sight. 'There can't be puddles because no one has offered a fully-comprehensive theory which predicts puddles and which I find acceptable! Why must people be so puddleist?' > Yes, and now that you're reduced to making my points for me, we're done. Denying your fallacious original overreadings and adopting your opponent's criticisms and claiming to have held them all along, while flattering, is still very annoying.
- gwern 13y ago
  > When one seen someone assume a correlation has a meaning not proven in the evidence, it's not condescension, it's charity. Where did I assume a meaning? My point was simple: you were trying to pretend the data doesn't exist by directly contradicting the very definition of what a correlation is. I am not committing myself to any further framework or theory or causal model of how the correlation comes into existence. > Yes, as does the causal relationship between puddles and rain in advance of an attempt to offer an explanation: puddles predict rainfall. Indeed, it does. Which is why a puddle-denier is a sad sight. 'There can't be puddles because no one has offered a fully-comprehensive theory which predicts puddles and which I find acceptable! Why must people be so puddleist?' > Yes, and now that you're reduced to making my points for me, we're done. Denying your fallacious original overreadings and adopting your opponent's criticisms and claiming to have held them all along, while flattering, is still very annoying.
  - lutusp 13y ago
    >> When one seen someone assume a correlation has a meaning not proven in the evidence, it's not condescension, it's charity. > Where did I assume a meaning? Apart from the correlation, when you began speaking as though an I.Q. test measures intelligence. Even the current test's designer denies that. > you were trying to pretend the data doesn't exist ... Citation needed. You're using words I never used to assert a claim I never made. I never claimed that data don't exist, I made the point that without evidence for a connection, the correlation has no meaning. And I proved it with multiple examples. > Denying your fallacious original overreadings ... I see that you still need to learn the role of evidence.

dllthomas 13y ago

gwern did not say you were done doing science when you observe the correlation, or that you can read in more meaning, just that there being a correlation does mean that there is a correlation. If I look at a population, and find a perfect linear fit between net worth and height, I can say that in that population "wealthy people are taller" as a descriptive fact about that population without making any particular claim as to why.