7 ms·
You have a green heat map of #submissions(time) where time is 1-hour slots across 7 days. You also have a red heat map of #successful_submissions(time)
by mturmon 13y ago
You have a green heat map of
#submissions(time)
where time is 1-hour slots across 7 days. You also have a red heat map of
#successful_submissions(time)
where successful is > 100 points. I think what you want is a third map which is the ratio,
#successful_submissions / #submissions
which would be the empirical probability of a submission being successful, given the submission time. The raw counts don't tell you this.
(If you have a zero in the #submissions bin at some time, this will give 0/0, so you might want to put in a "Laplace correction" which is to add 1 count to each #submissions bin. There are other adjustments you can use, but this would be good enough for the purpose of the plot.)
- j2kun 13y agoI also noticed this, and would love to see such a chart.
- karpathy 13y agoI did a similar analysis to the one posted here and computed a similar heat map to the one you describe, but I marked a submission as successful when it went from new -> front page, not when it hit 100 points. The result is in ~middle of the post and it seems that weekends are best for chances of a story making it to the front. http://karpathy.ca/myblog/2013/11/27/quantifying-hacker-news-with-50-days-of-data/ http://karpathy.ca/myblog/2013/11/27/quantifying-hacker-news... and the raw ipython notebook with too many details: http://cs.stanford.edu/people/karpathy/hn_analysis.html http://cs.stanford.edu/people/karpathy/hn_analysis.html
- mturmon 13y agoThanks very much. And on a log scale too! As you noticed, not only do weekends offer a significantly improved chance of making it to the front page, but also: the mid-morning weekday peak seems to cause enough competition that submissions have a hard time making it. This is in contradiction to an assertion made in the OP: "Your odds are slightly better when submitting at peak activity (weekdays at 12 PM EST / 9 AM PST)." The problem being, they did not calculate the odds.