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It seems that people are running towards Telegram: "This is crazy. We'are getting 100 new registrations every second. Trying hard to prevent connection issues i

by okgabr 13y ago

It seems that people are running towards Telegram: "This is crazy. We'are getting 100 new registrations every second. Trying hard to prevent connection issues in Europe." https://twitter.com/telegram/status/437313902058426368 https://twitter.com/telegram/status/437313902058426368 UPDATE: Telegram is already facing connection issues in Europe caused by the "avalanche" of new users. https://twitter.com/telegram/status/437335049923727360 https://twitter.com/telegram/status/437335049923727360

lmg643 13y ago
One of the key tenets of Warren Buffett's theory of investment value is based around "moats" - businesses that can't easily be replicated. It's impressive how large WhatsApp has grown but it might be more remarkable how quickly another service can grow in its place. Barriers to entry are continuously falling in mobile and tech in general.
- diminish 13y ago
  for messaging, there may be a rule similar to moore's for transistors; ... every 18 months a new messaging platform will be the go-to place.
  - sjtgraham 13y ago
    This is pretty ridiculous. Whatsapp solved two important problems. It was the first non-SMS cross-platform messaging service for mobile (telephone number as address, etc), and carriers were (and still are) price gouging on SMS pricing. Whatsapp quickly picked up initial users because of this and growth accelerated as it benefited from the massive network effects of more and more users joining the service. It's not clear that Whatsapp has any major problems as SMS does that would allow an upstart to make a significant incursion into Whatsapp's user base. Whatsapp also has massive network effect now, the switching cost seems too high.
    - gress 13y ago
      The switching cost being installing a different app?
      - chaz 13y ago
        No. The switching cost is getting all of your contacts to install a different app and use it regularly.
        Retric 13y ago
        But they don't actually need to use it just have it installed and you can message them. If they respond with a different app or a text message nothing breaks.
        gress 13y ago
        Exactly - I know numerous people who use multiple apps for messaging. Most of my US friends use iMessage and Facebook. But my UK friends use iMessage and whatsapp. It's no big deal to use more than one.
    - anigbrowl 13y ago
      The switching cost is virtually nil. You install another app in parallel, tell your friends you like it so much more, and if it's better they start using it. Eventually you pay less attention to the first app, spend longer before replying to messages on there or not at all, and so on.
      - ronaldx 13y ago
        This used to be true about social networks as well, but Facebook (still) seems to be the end of that.
      - vidarh 13y ago
        You can have the service fallback to sending SMS but with an ad for the service before the actual message.
  - deleted 13y ago
    [deleted]
- sgloutnikov 13y ago
  Viber has also been steadily growing along side WhatsApp. I think they had around 200M users last summer. A great thing they have that was not in WhatsApp is free VoIP calling.
- porter 13y ago
  messaging has network effects no?
  - snogglethorpe 13y ago
    Indeed, but users can easily have multiple apps installed and use them simultaneously, so it's not particularly hard for a user base to migrate over time -- having some friends on app1 and other friends on app2 isn't a huge deal for the most part... [Most of these apps have already done this, by luring users away from SMS]
- adnam 13y ago
  Except Whatsapp has a very strong network effect that's difficult to replicate (the other person must also have the app). That's why we designed Upptalk to interoperate with standard telephony services like SMS and SIP.
  - judk 13y ago
    Installing an app is 2 taps, it's just as easy as opening a text message.
    - ben336 13y ago
      Do all your friends come with 2 taps though?
      - aaronem 13y ago
        With enough practice.
    - 650REDHAIR 13y ago
      Telegram have a bunch of J2ME apps?
  - btilly 13y ago
    Network effects are smaller than people think. The best estimate from multiple methodologies is n log(n).
    - adnam 13y ago
      I disagree, network effects are incredibly strong. Since Telegram is only capable of talking to other Telegram apps, its value increases not only in proportion to the number of contacts who have it installed, but also how often you need to communicate with those people.
      - btilly 13y ago
        See http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko/doc/metcalfe.pdf http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko/doc/metcalfe.pdf for more backing up what I said, based on a variety of arguments from a variety of sources.
ereckers 13y ago
100 new registrations every second... wow. And I thought the Facebook hate was mainly in the tech circles. I guess it's a real "thing". 100 registrations per second can't all be HNers.
- dubbel 13y ago
  I read that Germans are really into the alternative messengers right now. My Facebook feed with old (non-techy) highschool friends is full of "Go Threema" or "You can reach me via Telegram".

by okgabr 13y ago

lmg643 13y ago

One of the key tenets of Warren Buffett's theory of investment value is based around "moats" - businesses that can't easily be replicated. It's impressive how large WhatsApp has grown but it might be more remarkable how quickly another service can grow in its place. Barriers to entry are continuously falling in mobile and tech in general.

diminish 13y ago
for messaging, there may be a rule similar to moore's for transistors; ... every 18 months a new messaging platform will be the go-to place.
- sjtgraham 13y ago
  This is pretty ridiculous. Whatsapp solved two important problems. It was the first non-SMS cross-platform messaging service for mobile (telephone number as address, etc), and carriers were (and still are) price gouging on SMS pricing. Whatsapp quickly picked up initial users because of this and growth accelerated as it benefited from the massive network effects of more and more users joining the service. It's not clear that Whatsapp has any major problems as SMS does that would allow an upstart to make a significant incursion into Whatsapp's user base. Whatsapp also has massive network effect now, the switching cost seems too high.
  - gress 13y ago
    The switching cost being installing a different app?
    - chaz 13y ago
      No. The switching cost is getting all of your contacts to install a different app and use it regularly.
      - Retric 13y ago
        But they don't actually need to use it just have it installed and you can message them. If they respond with a different app or a text message nothing breaks.
        gress 13y ago
        Exactly - I know numerous people who use multiple apps for messaging. Most of my US friends use iMessage and Facebook. But my UK friends use iMessage and whatsapp. It's no big deal to use more than one.
  - anigbrowl 13y ago
    The switching cost is virtually nil. You install another app in parallel, tell your friends you like it so much more, and if it's better they start using it. Eventually you pay less attention to the first app, spend longer before replying to messages on there or not at all, and so on.
    - ronaldx 13y ago
      This used to be true about social networks as well, but Facebook (still) seems to be the end of that.
    - vidarh 13y ago
      You can have the service fallback to sending SMS but with an ad for the service before the actual message.
- deleted 13y ago
  [deleted]
sgloutnikov 13y ago
Viber has also been steadily growing along side WhatsApp. I think they had around 200M users last summer. A great thing they have that was not in WhatsApp is free VoIP calling.
porter 13y ago
messaging has network effects no?
- snogglethorpe 13y ago
  Indeed, but users can easily have multiple apps installed and use them simultaneously, so it's not particularly hard for a user base to migrate over time -- having some friends on app1 and other friends on app2 isn't a huge deal for the most part... [Most of these apps have already done this, by luring users away from SMS]
adnam 13y ago
Except Whatsapp has a very strong network effect that's difficult to replicate (the other person must also have the app). That's why we designed Upptalk to interoperate with standard telephony services like SMS and SIP.
- judk 13y ago
  Installing an app is 2 taps, it's just as easy as opening a text message.
  - ben336 13y ago
    Do all your friends come with 2 taps though?
    - aaronem 13y ago
      With enough practice.
  - 650REDHAIR 13y ago
    Telegram have a bunch of J2ME apps?
- btilly 13y ago
  Network effects are smaller than people think. The best estimate from multiple methodologies is n log(n).
  - adnam 13y ago
    I disagree, network effects are incredibly strong. Since Telegram is only capable of talking to other Telegram apps, its value increases not only in proportion to the number of contacts who have it installed, but also how often you need to communicate with those people.
    - btilly 13y ago
      See http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko/doc/metcalfe.pdf http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko/doc/metcalfe.pdf for more backing up what I said, based on a variety of arguments from a variety of sources.

ereckers 13y ago

100 new registrations every second... wow. And I thought the Facebook hate was mainly in the tech circles. I guess it's a real "thing". 100 registrations per second can't all be HNers.

dubbel 13y ago
I read that Germans are really into the alternative messengers right now. My Facebook feed with old (non-techy) highschool friends is full of "Go Threema" or "You can reach me via Telegram".