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It's a tossup ("50/50"?) that Mtgox recovers, and then there's the risk that it'll crash as soon as it does. Is there any point in buying Mtgox bitcoin at this

It's a tossup ("50/50"?) that Mtgox recovers, and then there's the risk that it'll crash as soon as it does. Is there any point in buying Mtgox bitcoin at this point, or would it just be throwing away money?

cheald 13y ago
That's where the potential for speculation comes in. If you can buy Mtgox BTC and manage to extract it from Mtgox systems at some point in the future, you can make a lot of money by buying for Satoshis on the BTC. On the other hand, if you buy these, MtGox never re-enables the ability to transfer the BTC they hold on your behalf into your own wallet, and then can't get someone else to take them, you're completely out of your original purchase capital. I don't think anyone expects MtGox to survive as a major player after this, but if you can get it out of their systems and into your own wallet, 1 BTC that's currently in MtGox is as good as 1 BTC anywhere else. What's being speculated on here is the confidence that MtGox will at some point restore the ability for people to transfer BTC out of their system, and the confidence that people will be able to extract (at current exchange rates) at least 20% of their BTC held there.
nathancahill 13y ago
Mtgox Bitcoin price is 5:1. If you really think the chances are 50/50 that Mtgox recovers, it's a good buy.
ewillbefull 13y ago
If mtgox recovers there will not be a crash, the price of bitcoin will skyrocket as people scramble to withdraw BTC by selling USD, since USD withdrawals are still pretty much impossible.
pmorici 13y ago
I think the chances of getting your money back are _significantly_ worse than 50/50 if you don't have money trapped in Gox count yourself lucky and move along. Betting on a Gox recovery at this point is like walking into a casino and putting a bet down on the the number 10. It is a gamble with odds stacked significantly against you.

cheald 13y ago

That's where the potential for speculation comes in. If you can buy Mtgox BTC and manage to extract it from Mtgox systems at some point in the future, you can make a lot of money by buying for Satoshis on the BTC. On the other hand, if you buy these, MtGox never re-enables the ability to transfer the BTC they hold on your behalf into your own wallet, and then can't get someone else to take them, you're completely out of your original purchase capital. I don't think anyone expects MtGox to survive as a major player after this, but if you can get it out of their systems and into your own wallet, 1 BTC that's currently in MtGox is as good as 1 BTC anywhere else. What's being speculated on here is the confidence that MtGox will at some point restore the ability for people to transfer BTC out of their system, and the confidence that people will be able to extract (at current exchange rates) at least 20% of their BTC held there.

nathancahill 13y ago

Mtgox Bitcoin price is 5:1. If you really think the chances are 50/50 that Mtgox recovers, it's a good buy.

ewillbefull 13y ago

If mtgox recovers there will not be a crash, the price of bitcoin will skyrocket as people scramble to withdraw BTC by selling USD, since USD withdrawals are still pretty much impossible.

pmorici 13y ago

I think the chances of getting your money back are _significantly_ worse than 50/50 if you don't have money trapped in Gox count yourself lucky and move along. Betting on a Gox recovery at this point is like walking into a casino and putting a bet down on the the number 10. It is a gamble with odds stacked significantly against you.