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> they can at least tell if a season is going to be bad well ahead of time. Proof needed. e.g., the UK Met office predicted this would be a dry winter...
by kbutler 13y ago
> they can at least tell if a season is going to be bad well ahead of time.
Proof needed.
e.g., the UK Met office predicted this would be a dry winter...
- sp332 13y agoEvery season the Heidke skill score is high, they did well. Here's an example http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/ghaz_verif.shtml http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards...
- ackydoodles 13y agoA ridiculous measure, because it depends upon the definition of "correct", which is an arbitrary reduction of continuous data to a single axis, and because the scoring is conducted by those who have a vested interest in the outcome, and that's just for starters. How about applying some statistics, like the probability that a correct forecast (whatever that is) could be accounted for by chance, given the population of forecasts and conditions in which it takes place? P-values have their limitations, but that's no reason to discard them entirely.