Predictions aren't magic. They're based on looking at past data and using that to draw conclusions about future data. Weather, being extremely variable even w

Predictions aren't magic. They're based on looking at past data and using that to draw conclusions about future data. Weather, being extremely variable even within a day, is a lot harder to predict than, say, "It will be colder in January than in August (in the northern hemisphere)." That one's a slam dunk. Watching the warming trend, it seems more predictable than weekly weather. Even now, with this winder, the north pole is warmer than normal which is part of what's causing the weather systems we're experiencing in North America (as you referenced with the vortex). Why on earth would the models have something like this vortex detaching built into them? We've never seen it before, or seen it so rarely that nobody built it into the model. That doesn't say we can't predict climate, it just says we didn't predict this particular consequence of climate change.