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I don't think this IPO will progress until after King release their Q1'14 results. Check out this image: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1580732/00011931
by jackgavigan 13y ago
I don't think this IPO will progress until after King release their Q1'14 results. Check out this image: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1580732/000119312514056089/g564433g25d61.jpg http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1580732/0001193125140...
It shows that the monthly unique payers (MUPs), revenue and profits were all lower in Q4'13 than they were in Q3'13. Investors will want to know whether Q3'13 was the peak (and it's all downhill from here) or whether Q4'13 was a blip and Q1'14 resumes the upward trend.
Smart investors are wary of one-hit wonders. I heard that Rovio's March 2011 investment round was based on a valuation of 1x revenues. Mind Candy is working on three new franchises that it hopes will replace Moshi Monsters, which has seen traffic from the UK and US drop by ~50% over the past year.
Even the dumb investors will have learned from Zynga. Zynga's revenues peaked at $332.5m in Q2'12 and they've been in decline ever since. Last quarter, they were $176.36m. See http://www.statista.com/statistics/276483/zyngas-quarterly-revenue/ http://www.statista.com/statistics/276483/zyngas-quarterly-r...
Zynga's share price was priced at $10 when it IPO'd in December 2011. It peaked at $14.69 in March 2012 and is trading at less than $5 today.
If King's Q1'14 numbers are lower than Q4'13, I would not expect the IPO to go ahead. Companies in this space need to demonstrate the ability to repeat the success of hits like FarmVille, Angry Birds, Candy Crush and Moshi Monsters.