11 ms·

Mt. Gox Impact Diminishes as Market Price Dissociates

44 points by floorlamp 13y ago

blibble 13y ago
that top image has to be the most questionable trendline I've ever seen
- dragontamer 13y ago
  Agreed. Fortunately, it isn't meant to be a "trendline", but instead a measure to show that correlation between exchanges does not exist anymore. Different exchanges are supposed to have correlations near 1.00. (.99 to .95 is to be expected) However, with correlations near .5, it is clear that Bitstamp prices are very different from Mt. Gox prices.
rdmcfee 13y ago
The market is clearly betting against MtGox having a fix soon. Based on this article it seems like their revenues are strong but their customer acquisition and retention will suffer immensely if they don't manage to re-instate withdrawals. I find it hard to imagine that they won't solve the withdrawal concern soon. Especially with today's update.
- kolev 13y ago
  The withdrawals will be supposedly enabled after the 20th with limits! They are clearly insolvent and I hope to see Mark Karpeles and Roger Ver in jail sool! "The Bitcoin Satan" (i.e. Roger Ver) is actually soliciting people on Bitcoin Forums to buy their coins and dollars at Mt.Gox at a discounted rate, i.e. they are trying with Mark to steal coins from customers and cover up the loss from theft that's most probably have happened. This clearly proves that Bitcoin and especially exchanges should be heavily regulated. People have lots millions of dollars due to the games Mt.Gox is playing with them - in a normal market, they would be jailed and jailed hard. Similar story with BitSpend, all the Bitcoin gambling sites, honest Ponzi sites like (ponzi.io), and similar - there are horror stories over at Reddit and Bitcoin Forums of people losing their last penny trying to recover from the price drop by gambling. I am sorry, but Bitcoin really is a criminals' sandbox recently! It's a good piece of technology in the wrong hands!
  - ChuckMcM 13y ago
    Well said. This is the really interesting thing about BitCoin for me, making cryptocurrency work without regulation. I appreciate that folks are trying. It touches on the fundamental difference between so called 'legal tender' and markers for barter.
    - kolev 13y ago
      We're not comparing apples to apples to say Bitcoin transactions are free or cheap. Credit cards are a mature piece of technology that has optimized the costs over the years. The credit cards processing fee is something that has so much behind it (consumer protection, interest-free crediting, etc.) - you cannot compare Bitcoin to this at all. There's no consumer protection with Bitcoin - you're on your own, so, compare transaction fees of cash to Bitcoin, not credit card or remittance fees to Bitcoin if you want to be taken seriously! Yeah, it works with the young and inexperienced who don't know all the complexity behind the status quo.
      - icebraining 13y ago
        The reason you need pervasive consumer protection using CCs is because the system is fundamentally flawed, relying on every single merchant not to be a scammer or aciddentally leak the info. With BTC (and similar systems), you can pay for protection when you need it, while having a cheaper service when you don't. And this isn't something discovered with BTC, some of us live in countries with sane payment systems that are cheaper than CCs. They just don't work abroad, which nowadays is a major limitation.
        paulhauggis 13y ago
        where is this protection for bitcoin? every exchange has been hacked or ripped off by the owners.
        icebraining 13y ago
        Exchanges are only needed to buy and sell Bitcoins¹; after that, you can move them out permanently, whereas with CCs, you can never be sure that the merchant didn't record (maliciously or not) your CC info. You also only need to trust one exchange, not N merchants, so it's much easier to do proper evaluation. ¹ Technically, you never actually need an exchange at all, there are other ways of getting Bitcoins.
- pmorici 13y ago
  Anyone that thinks this is going to turn out well for people with money in Gox is off their rocker. Just saw this this morning from a veteran of the online poker industry talking about how the Gox situation has strong parallels to online poker companies that saw a rash of insolvencies due to funds seizures, theft, and banking issues. Just cemented my view. http://www.coindesk.com/mt-gox-may-headed-bankruptcy/ http://www.coindesk.com/mt-gox-may-headed-bankruptcy/
kolev 13y ago
Bitcoin at its best - ignore and outshout truths that don't help the value of your stash go up.
- deleted 13y ago
  [deleted]
- kiba 13y ago
  Why do you think the market is wrong on this one?
  - kolev 13y ago
    "Market" is an exaggeration. It's a battleground of flawed trading bot algos, immature investors, internal fraud by exchanges, and some shady characters ("Fontas", "whales", etc.).
    - deleted 13y ago
      [deleted]
    - oscilloscope 13y ago
      If the "battleground" is the exchange value of Bitcoin, then calling it a market is not an exaggeration.
      - kolev 13y ago
        Ideally, the market price is driven purely by demand and supply, not by bots and speculators.
        Karunamon 13y ago
        .... "bots and speculators" are participants in supply and demand.
        kolev 13y ago
        @Karunamon Sorry for not being clear. My point is that increasing price it's not indicative that more people are getting interested in Bitcoin like many are trying to present it. It's purely speculation and we saw recent polls showing regular people not being interested in alternatives to the dollar.
samolang 13y ago
For anyone that is interested there is now a market for trading "real" bitcoins for "gox" bitcoins. https://bitcoinbuilder.com/ https://bitcoinbuilder.com/
- hatu 13y ago
  Can you explain what is stuck at Gox? Is it peoples bitcoins or their cash? How can they get them out to trade to other people and if they can why are they valued lower than normal bitcoins?
  - StavrosK 13y ago
    Both are trapped, nothing goes in or out. They're valued lower because of that.
  - samolang 13y ago
    My understanding is that both bitcoins and cash are stuck at Gox. But you are still able to do internal bitcoin transfers within Gox. Person A transfers their "gox" bitcoins to bitcoinbuilder.com's "gox" bitcoin address, person B transfers their "real" bitcoins to bitcoinbuilder.com's "real" bitcoin address, bitcoinsbuilder.com transfers the "gox" bitcoins to person B's "gox" bitcoin address, and bitcoinsbuilder.com transfers the "real" bitcoins to person A's "real" bitcoin address. No bitcoins enter or leave Gox, they just trade hands within Gox using bitcoinsbuilder.com as the intermediary.
- StavrosK 13y ago
  Why require verification? I don't want to give them all my info.
  - samolang 13y ago
    On reddit the site creator said that is what his lawyers advised. http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1xmfby/i_just_launched_a_new_exchange_for_gox_btc_real/cfglk0s http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1xmfby/i_jus...
greatsuccess 13y ago
Its hard to say whether this disassociation is really good for anyone. Its probably a fair assumption that some exchanges have accounts at Gox to take advantage of their (formerly) higher exchange rate. If my speculation is correct Mt Gox while being dissociated may protect individuals, but could doom other exchanges if they have significant holdings there. Individuals wont know until its too late.

44 points by floorlamp 13y ago

blibble 13y ago

that top image has to be the most questionable trendline I've ever seen

dragontamer 13y ago
Agreed. Fortunately, it isn't meant to be a "trendline", but instead a measure to show that correlation between exchanges does not exist anymore. Different exchanges are supposed to have correlations near 1.00. (.99 to .95 is to be expected) However, with correlations near .5, it is clear that Bitstamp prices are very different from Mt. Gox prices.

rdmcfee 13y ago

The market is clearly betting against MtGox having a fix soon. Based on this article it seems like their revenues are strong but their customer acquisition and retention will suffer immensely if they don't manage to re-instate withdrawals. I find it hard to imagine that they won't solve the withdrawal concern soon. Especially with today's update.

kolev 13y ago
The withdrawals will be supposedly enabled after the 20th with limits! They are clearly insolvent and I hope to see Mark Karpeles and Roger Ver in jail sool! "The Bitcoin Satan" (i.e. Roger Ver) is actually soliciting people on Bitcoin Forums to buy their coins and dollars at Mt.Gox at a discounted rate, i.e. they are trying with Mark to steal coins from customers and cover up the loss from theft that's most probably have happened. This clearly proves that Bitcoin and especially exchanges should be heavily regulated. People have lots millions of dollars due to the games Mt.Gox is playing with them - in a normal market, they would be jailed and jailed hard. Similar story with BitSpend, all the Bitcoin gambling sites, honest Ponzi sites like (ponzi.io), and similar - there are horror stories over at Reddit and Bitcoin Forums of people losing their last penny trying to recover from the price drop by gambling. I am sorry, but Bitcoin really is a criminals' sandbox recently! It's a good piece of technology in the wrong hands!
- ChuckMcM 13y ago
  Well said. This is the really interesting thing about BitCoin for me, making cryptocurrency work without regulation. I appreciate that folks are trying. It touches on the fundamental difference between so called 'legal tender' and markers for barter.
  - kolev 13y ago
    We're not comparing apples to apples to say Bitcoin transactions are free or cheap. Credit cards are a mature piece of technology that has optimized the costs over the years. The credit cards processing fee is something that has so much behind it (consumer protection, interest-free crediting, etc.) - you cannot compare Bitcoin to this at all. There's no consumer protection with Bitcoin - you're on your own, so, compare transaction fees of cash to Bitcoin, not credit card or remittance fees to Bitcoin if you want to be taken seriously! Yeah, it works with the young and inexperienced who don't know all the complexity behind the status quo.
    - icebraining 13y ago
      The reason you need pervasive consumer protection using CCs is because the system is fundamentally flawed, relying on every single merchant not to be a scammer or aciddentally leak the info. With BTC (and similar systems), you can pay for protection when you need it, while having a cheaper service when you don't. And this isn't something discovered with BTC, some of us live in countries with sane payment systems that are cheaper than CCs. They just don't work abroad, which nowadays is a major limitation.
      - paulhauggis 13y ago
        where is this protection for bitcoin? every exchange has been hacked or ripped off by the owners.
        icebraining 13y ago
        Exchanges are only needed to buy and sell Bitcoins¹; after that, you can move them out permanently, whereas with CCs, you can never be sure that the merchant didn't record (maliciously or not) your CC info. You also only need to trust one exchange, not N merchants, so it's much easier to do proper evaluation. ¹ Technically, you never actually need an exchange at all, there are other ways of getting Bitcoins.
pmorici 13y ago
Anyone that thinks this is going to turn out well for people with money in Gox is off their rocker. Just saw this this morning from a veteran of the online poker industry talking about how the Gox situation has strong parallels to online poker companies that saw a rash of insolvencies due to funds seizures, theft, and banking issues. Just cemented my view. http://www.coindesk.com/mt-gox-may-headed-bankruptcy/ http://www.coindesk.com/mt-gox-may-headed-bankruptcy/

kolev 13y ago

Bitcoin at its best - ignore and outshout truths that don't help the value of your stash go up.

deleted 13y ago
[deleted]
kiba 13y ago
Why do you think the market is wrong on this one?
- kolev 13y ago
  "Market" is an exaggeration. It's a battleground of flawed trading bot algos, immature investors, internal fraud by exchanges, and some shady characters ("Fontas", "whales", etc.).
  - deleted 13y ago
    [deleted]
  - oscilloscope 13y ago
    If the "battleground" is the exchange value of Bitcoin, then calling it a market is not an exaggeration.
    - kolev 13y ago
      Ideally, the market price is driven purely by demand and supply, not by bots and speculators.
      - Karunamon 13y ago
        .... "bots and speculators" are participants in supply and demand.
      - kolev 13y ago
        @Karunamon Sorry for not being clear. My point is that increasing price it's not indicative that more people are getting interested in Bitcoin like many are trying to present it. It's purely speculation and we saw recent polls showing regular people not being interested in alternatives to the dollar.

samolang 13y ago

For anyone that is interested there is now a market for trading "real" bitcoins for "gox" bitcoins. https://bitcoinbuilder.com/ https://bitcoinbuilder.com/

hatu 13y ago
Can you explain what is stuck at Gox? Is it peoples bitcoins or their cash? How can they get them out to trade to other people and if they can why are they valued lower than normal bitcoins?
- StavrosK 13y ago
  Both are trapped, nothing goes in or out. They're valued lower because of that.
- samolang 13y ago
  My understanding is that both bitcoins and cash are stuck at Gox. But you are still able to do internal bitcoin transfers within Gox. Person A transfers their "gox" bitcoins to bitcoinbuilder.com's "gox" bitcoin address, person B transfers their "real" bitcoins to bitcoinbuilder.com's "real" bitcoin address, bitcoinsbuilder.com transfers the "gox" bitcoins to person B's "gox" bitcoin address, and bitcoinsbuilder.com transfers the "real" bitcoins to person A's "real" bitcoin address. No bitcoins enter or leave Gox, they just trade hands within Gox using bitcoinsbuilder.com as the intermediary.
StavrosK 13y ago
Why require verification? I don't want to give them all my info.
- samolang 13y ago
  On reddit the site creator said that is what his lawyers advised. http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1xmfby/i_just_launched_a_new_exchange_for_gox_btc_real/cfglk0s http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1xmfby/i_jus...

greatsuccess 13y ago

Its hard to say whether this disassociation is really good for anyone. Its probably a fair assumption that some exchanges have accounts at Gox to take advantage of their (formerly) higher exchange rate. If my speculation is correct Mt Gox while being dissociated may protect individuals, but could doom other exchanges if they have significant holdings there. Individuals wont know until its too late.