Paypal is another company, based on existing platforms. Their success was directly tied to their ability to predict fraud and take real-time decisions to block

Paypal is another company, based on existing platforms. Their success was directly tied to their ability to predict fraud and take real-time decisions to block or, at times allow, a high risk transaction to process (assuming their algorithm determined the cost of blocking the transaction was greater than allowing it to go through and issuing a refund). People believe their differentiator was payment processing, but its this very belief that allowed them to kill off their competition. If you view Bitcoin as similar to PayPal, then that is at the heart of why we view this issue differently. I would compare Bitcoin much more closely to HTTP, or other protocols -- and PayPal as being akin to BitPay. When Bitcoin is compared to companies built on top of existing protocols and platforms, then I believe the premise is misguided. M-Pesa's success is directly tied to cheap mobile airtime. In Malawi, I purchased a new cellphone with minutes for $12 USD, and I was paying the airport rate. The same principal goes for Kenya -- there were M-Pesa booths everywhere I went in Nairobi, but only because of the amazing uptake of basic cell phones mostly used for SMS. Without that mature platform, the business could never survive. Bitcoin could ultimately fail, but not due to the adoption curve as outlined in the article.