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Are you saying that if you had a young son/daughter, and their walk-to-school route when straight past a sex offenders house you wouldn't consider taking anothe
by trapper 17y ago
Are you saying that if you had a young son/daughter, and their walk-to-school route when straight past a sex offenders house you wouldn't consider taking another route? Theres something like an 8% rearrest rate for treated and ~15% rearrest rate for untreated offenders. That's a risk I wouldn't knowingly take.
- die_sekte 17y agoThe biggest threat for your children is their family and their friends. Only in about 10% of cases sexual abuse is commited by strangers. Instead of having them walk another route, why not forbid your relatives from seeing them?
- trapper 17y agoThat's like saying you shouldn't buy a lottery ticket because its unlikely you are going to win. Littlewood's law says we are likely to experience events that are one in a million relatively frequently. So are you really saying that you wouldn't change their route to school, given that there is somewhere at least 0.8-1.5% chance of this sex offender reoffending with a non-family member? (Assuming a reoffence rate of 8-15%, with 10% of those people offending with non-family members)
- axod 17y ago>> "That's like saying you shouldn't buy a lottery ticket because its unlikely you are going to win." Yes, which is why lottery tickets are largely just an unfair tax on the poor and uneducated. I don't play the lottery for similar reasons I don't bother finding out the personal criminal history of everyone living in my town - waste of time. YMMV
- axod 17y agoThey're more likely to get hit by a car. How many sex offenders have offended random school kids walking to school past their house? I'd say it's likely to be miniscule.
- trapper 17y agoReally? Do you have the stats on that?