4 ms·

More on the author of this post: https://www.skepticalscience.com/skeptic_Roy_Spencer.htm https://www.skepticalscience.com/skeptic_Roy_Spencer.htm http://en.w

More on the author of this post: https://www.skepticalscience.com/skeptic_Roy_Spencer.htm https://www.skepticalscience.com/skeptic_Roy_Spencer.htm http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_Spencer_(scientist)#Views http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_Spencer_(scientist)#Views Another interpretation of this post: http://www.reddit.com/r/skeptic/comments/1xuccb/95_of_climate_models_agree_the_observations_must/cfeqvjq http://www.reddit.com/r/skeptic/comments/1xuccb/95_of_climat... (also see ovis's link in a reply below) Regarding very similar claims: https://www.skepticalscience.com/curry-mcintyre-resist-ipcc-model-accuracy.html https://www.skepticalscience.com/curry-mcintyre-resist-ipcc-... http://www.skepticalscience.com/ipcc-model-gw-projections-done-better-than-you-think.html http://www.skepticalscience.com/ipcc-model-gw-projections-do...

sabbatic13 13y ago
Excellent links.
Jtsummers 13y ago
"It is a little known fact that the extra carbon dioxide (and methane, an especially potent greenhouse gas) emitted by joggers accounts for close to 10% of the current Global Warming problem." [1] Ban gym class! Ban exercise! [1] http://www.ideasinactiontv.com/tcs_daily/2005/06/time-for-action-on-global-warming.html http://www.ideasinactiontv.com/tcs_daily/2005/06/time-for-ac...
- jessaustin 13y ago
  Was there supposed to be a link there?
  - Jtsummers 13y ago
    Yes, thanks. Still in the edit window.
ovis 13y ago
Another take on the graph, shown here: http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2014/02/roy-spencers-latest-deceit-and-deception.html http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2014/02/roy-spencers-latest-decei... It's been speculated on RealClimate that Roy Spencer is continuing to use the highest emission scenario for these comparisons, which is not made clear on his site.
guelo 13y ago
"Earth and its ecosystems – created by God's intelligent design and infinite power and sustained by His faithful providence – are robust, resilient, self-regulating, and self-correcting" - Roy Spencer
- vixen99 13y ago
  And what do you deduce from your quote as related to the argument about climate models set out by Roy Spencer? Does it destroy his case or are the models a resounding success?
  - DanBC 13y ago
    Self correcting doesn't need to include self correcting and inhabitable by humans.
gruseom 13y ago
Considering how strongly your sources disagree with the OP, I find it surprising that the opposing graphs are not all that far off from each other. The graph from the last article you linked to: http://skepticalscience.com//pics/ProjvsObs.png http://skepticalscience.com//pics/ProjvsObs.png The graph from the OP: http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/CMIP5-90-models-global-Tsfc-vs-obs-thru-2013.png http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/CMIP5-90-mode... In both cases the actuals are at the low end of the predicted range. They disagree as to how low, obviously, but not as much as I expected.
- nerfhammer 13y ago
  see http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2014/02/roy-spencers-latest-deceit-and-deception.html http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2014/02/roy-spencers-latest-decei... (courtesy ovis below)
  - virtue3 13y ago
    I clicked the comments just to see this. Thank you :). I had a sneaky suspicion something was up when it was just some casual mention of data and not really providing sources or demonstrating a thorough understanding of the data. "If the deep ocean ends up averaging 4.1 deg. C, rather than 4.0 deg. C, it won’t really matter." He must be blissfully unaware of how badly the oceans are being affected right now by our impact.
    - 001sky 13y ago
      He must be blissfully unaware of how badly the oceans are being affected right now by our impact. This sentence really needs to cite actual data. "The oceans" are a pretty big place. And "localized" and "average" data are not comparable in any relevant sense given the scale. Even if you could measure the energy in the ocean to that level of precision (unlikely) your time series data would be so limited so as to present caution in its reference, when discussin the context of global climate history. It wasn't that long ago when John Muir was fighting the academic climate orthoxy over the sources of Yosemite valley. Its not a partisian or intellectual issue, its merely that data talks and bullshit walks. Muir did alot of walking to get his data, and argued alot with people that sat around theorizing talked alot of bullshit. Its always worth a little bit of perspective.
sixothree 13y ago
How does this post have 60 points?

sabbatic13 13y ago

Excellent links.

Jtsummers 13y ago

"It is a little known fact that the extra carbon dioxide (and methane, an especially potent greenhouse gas) emitted by joggers accounts for close to 10% of the current Global Warming problem." [1] Ban gym class! Ban exercise! [1] http://www.ideasinactiontv.com/tcs_daily/2005/06/time-for-action-on-global-warming.html http://www.ideasinactiontv.com/tcs_daily/2005/06/time-for-ac...

jessaustin 13y ago
Was there supposed to be a link there?
- Jtsummers 13y ago
  Yes, thanks. Still in the edit window.

ovis 13y ago

Another take on the graph, shown here: http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2014/02/roy-spencers-latest-deceit-and-deception.html http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2014/02/roy-spencers-latest-decei... It's been speculated on RealClimate that Roy Spencer is continuing to use the highest emission scenario for these comparisons, which is not made clear on his site.

guelo 13y ago

"Earth and its ecosystems – created by God's intelligent design and infinite power and sustained by His faithful providence – are robust, resilient, self-regulating, and self-correcting" - Roy Spencer

vixen99 13y ago
And what do you deduce from your quote as related to the argument about climate models set out by Roy Spencer? Does it destroy his case or are the models a resounding success?
- DanBC 13y ago
  Self correcting doesn't need to include self correcting and inhabitable by humans.

gruseom 13y ago

Considering how strongly your sources disagree with the OP, I find it surprising that the opposing graphs are not all that far off from each other. The graph from the last article you linked to: http://skepticalscience.com//pics/ProjvsObs.png http://skepticalscience.com//pics/ProjvsObs.png The graph from the OP: http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/CMIP5-90-models-global-Tsfc-vs-obs-thru-2013.png http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/CMIP5-90-mode... In both cases the actuals are at the low end of the predicted range. They disagree as to how low, obviously, but not as much as I expected.

nerfhammer 13y ago
see http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2014/02/roy-spencers-latest-deceit-and-deception.html http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2014/02/roy-spencers-latest-decei... (courtesy ovis below)
- virtue3 13y ago
  I clicked the comments just to see this. Thank you :). I had a sneaky suspicion something was up when it was just some casual mention of data and not really providing sources or demonstrating a thorough understanding of the data. "If the deep ocean ends up averaging 4.1 deg. C, rather than 4.0 deg. C, it won’t really matter." He must be blissfully unaware of how badly the oceans are being affected right now by our impact.
  - 001sky 13y ago
    He must be blissfully unaware of how badly the oceans are being affected right now by our impact. This sentence really needs to cite actual data. "The oceans" are a pretty big place. And "localized" and "average" data are not comparable in any relevant sense given the scale. Even if you could measure the energy in the ocean to that level of precision (unlikely) your time series data would be so limited so as to present caution in its reference, when discussin the context of global climate history. It wasn't that long ago when John Muir was fighting the academic climate orthoxy over the sources of Yosemite valley. Its not a partisian or intellectual issue, its merely that data talks and bullshit walks. Muir did alot of walking to get his data, and argued alot with people that sat around theorizing talked alot of bullshit. Its always worth a little bit of perspective.

sixothree 13y ago

How does this post have 60 points?