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> " Mr. Krawczyk said he believes Pandora's predictions are between 75% and 80% accurate" This doesn't really seem noteworthy at all. I would be interested to

by MSM 13y ago

> " Mr. Krawczyk said he believes Pandora's predictions are between 75% and 80% accurate" This doesn't really seem noteworthy at all. I would be interested to know on a national level, percentage-wise what the average majority of each county votes. I don't know how to word that better unfortunately, so here's an example: If we have three counties with equal population and one votes 81% republican, another 71% republican and the third 88% democrat, I would be able to determine your voting preferences by county alone with ~80% correctness. I know some states are swing states, but I think that a lot of those counties are still strong in one direction. Anyone know where this data might exist just for kicks?

jaredsohn 13y ago
This map shows the voting percentage from the last election for the House of Representatives for each county. http://s1131.photobucket.com/user/swolf318/media/Political%20Geography/UnitedStatesHouseofRepresentativesElection2012byCounty_zps37885a7f.png.html http://s1131.photobucket.com/user/swolf318/media/Political%2...
- MSM 13y ago
  Thanks! Managed to find a raw data source, added a reply to myself.
MSM 13y ago
Alright, so I managed to dig up the raw data by county.[1] I think I crunched the numbers correctly, but I wouldn't bet money on it being 100%. I just took the winning % per county and took a weighted average across the nation. I believe that should give me the desired results. The result set I used was purely presidential votes between only Obama and Romney which gave me some weird stuff like Harris, TX having a majority vote of 49.4% (also the third highest voting county, which hurt the average). Anyway, it was a fun excercise and it appears that pandora is estimated to be 25-30% more accurate than guessing on county/zip alone. I ended up seeing 61.29% as the average "majority" in each county. [1] http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2012/nov/07/us-2012-election-county-results-download#data http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2012/nov/07/us-2012...

by MSM 13y ago

jaredsohn 13y ago

This map shows the voting percentage from the last election for the House of Representatives for each county. http://s1131.photobucket.com/user/swolf318/media/Political%20Geography/UnitedStatesHouseofRepresentativesElection2012byCounty_zps37885a7f.png.html http://s1131.photobucket.com/user/swolf318/media/Political%2...

MSM 13y ago
Thanks! Managed to find a raw data source, added a reply to myself.

MSM 13y ago

Alright, so I managed to dig up the raw data by county.[1] I think I crunched the numbers correctly, but I wouldn't bet money on it being 100%. I just took the winning % per county and took a weighted average across the nation. I believe that should give me the desired results. The result set I used was purely presidential votes between only Obama and Romney which gave me some weird stuff like Harris, TX having a majority vote of 49.4% (also the third highest voting county, which hurt the average). Anyway, it was a fun excercise and it appears that pandora is estimated to be 25-30% more accurate than guessing on county/zip alone. I ended up seeing 61.29% as the average "majority" in each county. [1] http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2012/nov/07/us-2012-election-county-results-download#data http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2012/nov/07/us-2012...