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It was nearly 3 years ago when I sensed that Mt. Gox lack of maturity as an exchange would eventually spell trouble for Bitcoin: https://news.ycombinator.com/it
by snorkel 13y ago
It was nearly 3 years ago when I sensed that Mt. Gox lack of maturity as an exchange would eventually spell trouble for Bitcoin: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2608055 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2608055
... and 78 days ago I recommended sell your Bitcoin now.
I'm not clairvoyant or an insider, rather I've seen this movie before. It's called The Bubble. This is the part of the movie where the bubble pops and remaining investors act all shocked and disappointed.
There was a Dot-com Bubble, it popped, people lost a lot money, but many of the dot-coms still exist and have grown.
There was a (US) Housing Bubble, it popped, and there's still houses being bought and sold, just at lower prices today.
... and there's still tulips for sale too.
My point is Bitcoin may still carry on past this episode, but you have to recognize that its current price is way too heavy to make it over this bridge without collapsing, and it takes a long long long time for prices to recover after a bubble pop.
- hindsightbias 13y agoIMO, the best indicator for a bubble is when people participating in some financial activity look at you like you're an idiot when you ask basic questions and can't explain themselves w/o all sorts of complicated answers and rationalizations, ultimately followed with "you just don't understand." I get that there are superpeople who are really that smart, but in my experience 99% of you are not that person. The hard part is guessing the limits of irrationality and maximizing your profits. I got out of the dot-com bubble over a year early.