3 ms·

As much as I am happy that my profession pays well, it is unreasonable to think everyone has the ability to do what we do. Adapting to skills beyond your domain

by NTDF9 13y ago

As much as I am happy that my profession pays well, it is unreasonable to think everyone has the ability to do what we do. Adapting to skills beyond your domain is really hard, especially when you are aging. Here's a scenario. Let's say that US loses it's energy supply (due to any fictional reason you can imagine). Who do you think is going to be in demand? No, no no kids...it's not going to be us programmers. The demand will be for the physically abled. The guys who can lift and ship without breaking too much sweat. Different environment, different demands. We are just plain lucky to be in the workforce today and to have an interest (and aptitude) in tech stuff. For society to function, everyone needs to have a reasonable chance at having the ability to live.

ChuckMcM 13y ago
> Different environment, different demands. We are just > plain lucky to be in the workforce today and to have an > interest (and aptitude) in tech stuff. I think you just made my point, did you see it that way? The definition of "high skill" and "low skill" are dependent variables on the environment, not independent variables like this research treats them. I also find this bit: "Adapting to skills beyond your domain is really hard, especially when you are aging." really interesting. It's the difference between "hard" and "possible." I get that its hard to go back into learning mode, especially to recapture that ability to treat every new thing as a gem to be admired. But I have not found any evidence that it isn't possible. And being hard is not in and of itself a reason not to do something. Especially if doing this 'hard' thing can greatly enhance your ability to be productive in the new environment. In your fictional scenario, I would totally start working on blacksmithing. They seemed to be the 'hackers' of their day. And I'd expect it to take several years before anyone would seriously considering using my services for anything other than basic stuff. Hard? Yes, but unless I had some damage to my rotator cuff or something I would think it was possible.
- NTDF9 13y ago
  > Yes, but unless I had some damage to my rotator cuff or something I would think it was possible. It would be naive of us to think that we will 'surely" adapt to new skills. Circumstances can mean that you just don't have the ability to do such things anymore. Is it "possible"? sure. But is it going to suck the life out of you? Most likely. Upgrading skills takes time, effort and resources. Most people (even in America) don't have enough of each of those. Look at all these students with $200k debt. They've basically imprisoned themselves for a long time. Even a job that pays $100k (-35% tax -30% living expenses) does not cut it. Acquiring new skills with negative equity makes it harder for most people.
  - ChuckMcM 13y ago
    Just a couple of follow-ups. I see your points but history doesn't agree. People adapt or die, and sometimes adapt and die. Looking at it in the 'small' (which is on an individual anecdote level) vs looking at it in the 'large' which is on a population cohort level. When there are large industrial changes there are employment shifts. That displaces some workers, creates new opportunities which are filled by new workers. After one or two generations of stability the process flattens out. > Look at all these students with $200k debt. This gets thrown around a lot. But it is a red herring. You need to drill down to find students who paid $200K for a worthless education, yes there are some, are they a material subset of all students? No. Look at all the people who were put into mortgages they couldn't afford because the rules were changed to incentivize that. That about pulled down the global financial system (we're still not quite done with that mistake). There is certainly a social justice issue with student debt, providing loans to students to get degrees that are unmarketable. But the 'fix' is to get rid of the debt discharge protection that student loans currently have. Allow the students to declare bankruptcy and dump the obligation, and guess what nobody will loan students $200K to get a fine arts degree. Is that a problem ? I don't know. For schools? Yes, they are already figuring out that they can't sell a diploma for an arbitrary price any more.

by NTDF9 13y ago

ChuckMcM 13y ago

> Different environment, different demands. We are just > plain lucky to be in the workforce today and to have an > interest (and aptitude) in tech stuff. I think you just made my point, did you see it that way? The definition of "high skill" and "low skill" are dependent variables on the environment, not independent variables like this research treats them. I also find this bit: "Adapting to skills beyond your domain is really hard, especially when you are aging." really interesting. It's the difference between "hard" and "possible." I get that its hard to go back into learning mode, especially to recapture that ability to treat every new thing as a gem to be admired. But I have not found any evidence that it isn't possible. And being hard is not in and of itself a reason not to do something. Especially if doing this 'hard' thing can greatly enhance your ability to be productive in the new environment. In your fictional scenario, I would totally start working on blacksmithing. They seemed to be the 'hackers' of their day. And I'd expect it to take several years before anyone would seriously considering using my services for anything other than basic stuff. Hard? Yes, but unless I had some damage to my rotator cuff or something I would think it was possible.

NTDF9 13y ago
> Yes, but unless I had some damage to my rotator cuff or something I would think it was possible. It would be naive of us to think that we will 'surely" adapt to new skills. Circumstances can mean that you just don't have the ability to do such things anymore. Is it "possible"? sure. But is it going to suck the life out of you? Most likely. Upgrading skills takes time, effort and resources. Most people (even in America) don't have enough of each of those. Look at all these students with $200k debt. They've basically imprisoned themselves for a long time. Even a job that pays $100k (-35% tax -30% living expenses) does not cut it. Acquiring new skills with negative equity makes it harder for most people.
- ChuckMcM 13y ago
  Just a couple of follow-ups. I see your points but history doesn't agree. People adapt or die, and sometimes adapt and die. Looking at it in the 'small' (which is on an individual anecdote level) vs looking at it in the 'large' which is on a population cohort level. When there are large industrial changes there are employment shifts. That displaces some workers, creates new opportunities which are filled by new workers. After one or two generations of stability the process flattens out. > Look at all these students with $200k debt. This gets thrown around a lot. But it is a red herring. You need to drill down to find students who paid $200K for a worthless education, yes there are some, are they a material subset of all students? No. Look at all the people who were put into mortgages they couldn't afford because the rules were changed to incentivize that. That about pulled down the global financial system (we're still not quite done with that mistake). There is certainly a social justice issue with student debt, providing loans to students to get degrees that are unmarketable. But the 'fix' is to get rid of the debt discharge protection that student loans currently have. Allow the students to declare bankruptcy and dump the obligation, and guess what nobody will loan students $200K to get a fine arts degree. Is that a problem ? I don't know. For schools? Yes, they are already figuring out that they can't sell a diploma for an arbitrary price any more.